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【群益证券】赤天化:转型煤化工企业,盈利逐年释放

羣益證券 ·  Apr 7, 2010 00:00  · Researches

In 2009, the company achieved revenue of 1,112 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.13%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 137 million yuan, yoy decreased by 20.39%, and EPS was 0.372 yuan, in line with expectations. The company plans to implement a 10 to 10 dividend dividend plan of 0.5. Currently, the factory price of the company's urea is 1,900 yuan/ton, which is higher than other regions in China. However, with the recent slight improvement in the drought situation in the Guizhou region, farmers have begun to replant crops, especially during the rice planting period up to early to mid-May, which uses a lot of fertilizer, which will support urea prices and help support local urea prices. The increase in urea prices will drive the company's revenue growth in the first half of the year. The company currently has a urea production capacity of 720,000 tons, but the supply of natural gas is insufficient. In 2009, the operating rate was only 78.5%, urea production was 565,400 tons, and YOY was reduced by 6%. In the first quarter of 2010, the company stopped production and maintenance for most of the time, and the planned production and sales volume for the whole year was 580,000 tons, which is only slightly better than in 2009. The company is transforming coal chemical projects. Among them, Tianfu Chemical's 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 150,000 tons of dimethyl ether coal chemical projects will achieve output in June 2010; Jinchi Chemical's annual production of 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 520,000 tons of urea, and 300,000 tons of methanol coal chemical projects has completed 75% of the equipment installation. It is expected that all equipment installation work will be completed by the end of 2010, and the testing and commissioning stage will begin in the first quarter of 2011. Furthermore, relying on Guizhou's abundant local coal resources, both major projects have certain advantages in terms of raw material costs. The two major coal chemical projects will enable the company to effectively overcome adverse factors due to insufficient natural gas supply and future increases in natural gas prices, and will become a new bright spot for the company's future profit growth. The shareholding company Guizhou Chitianhua Paper Co., Ltd. lost a large loss in 2009, causing the company to incur a loss of 30 million long-term equity investments, but in 2010, due to a sharp rise in pulp prices of more than 40% and an improvement in the supply of raw materials, losses are expected to be reversed in 2010. The company's recent divestment of pharmaceutical assets into compound fertilizer assets may have an adverse effect on net profit in the short term, but it is beneficial to expand the main fertilizer business in the long term. We expect the company's net profit in 2010 and 2011 to be 207 million yuan and 304 million yuan respectively, up 50.76% and 46.76% year on year, respectively, EPS at 0.436 and 0.64, and dynamic PE at 32.1 times and 21.9 times, giving the company investment advice.

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