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【银河证券】赤天化:新项目推动公司业绩高增长

中國銀河 ·  Feb 8, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The market has yet to notice that the company's new projects will significantly increase performance: Tianfu Chemical, which reached production in December 2010, will increase EPS by 0.05 yuan per year; Jinchi Chemical, which reached production in the second quarter of 2011, will increase EPS by 0.19 yuan throughout the year, and the 2011 semi-annual report will increase by more than 100%. The market generally believes that Shell and Texaco coal water slurry (powder) gasification technology does not work well in China, and we believe that this technology can achieve good operation in the company. Since the company has signed a sales agreement with the oil company, full sales have stabilized the load on the installation. The low cost of Shell and Texaco will drive high profits in the Tianfu and Jinchi projects, thus increasing the company's performance by 208% and 46% in 2011 and 2012. The alcohol ether fuel market space is 50 to 70 million tons, which can fully absorb the company's 150,000 to 300,000 tons of new project production capacity. The era of major development of alcohol ether fuel in China has arrived. National policies encourage the major development of alcohol ether vehicle fuels. Relevant policies are expected to be introduced one after another. The market space is 50 to 70 million tons, which can fully absorb the company's production capacity of 150,000 to 300,000 tons of new projects. International oil prices, which operated at a high level in 2011, are conducive to coal chemical development companies' new project product sales and are guaranteed: the large price difference between methanol, dimethyl ether and gasoline and diesel prompted gas stations to cooperate in sales; inconvenient transportation in Guizhou made the company's new urea completely replaceable alternative to products from other provinces. The Huaizi coal mine can reduce the company's future raw coal costs by more than 50%. The reasonable valuation range for the DCF-WACC model is 7.95-8.85 yuan. The company's total production facilities and total market value are clearly underestimated. The profit forecast for 2010-2012 is 0.13 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.61 yuan, which corresponds to the current PE of 43, 14, and 9.6 times, giving a recommended rating. Main risk factors: The company has a production safety accident

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