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【华创证券】赤天化:产业转型带来良好预期

華創證券 ·  Mar 16, 2011 00:00  · Researches

1. Currently, the company's main profitable product is gas head urea. However, due to insufficient supply of natural gas raw materials, production was only over 500,000 tons in 10 years. Currently, the supply price of natural gas is still around 1.10 yuan per cubic meter as stipulated by the state. However, as oil prices continue to rise, gas supply prices are also facing upward pressure. 2. The new coal chemical project is the company's future transformation direction. Guizhou Tianfu Chemical Co., Ltd., in which the company invests and holds 51% of its shares, produces 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 150,000 tons of dimethyl ether per year, and has fully entered the trial production stage in December 2010; Jinchi Chemical, which is wholly owned by the company, has an annual production capacity of 520,000 tons of urea and 300,000 tons of methanol. Trial production is expected in the second half of the year. It is expected that the formal commissioning of the new coal chemical project will greatly increase the company's production capacity and sales revenue. 3. The Huaizi coal mine will reduce the cost of the company's coal chemical project. The Huaizi coal mine has an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, which can cover 1/3 of the raw coal supply for coal chemical projects, and can save more than 500 yuan in coal costs per ton. 4. The business situation of Chicanhua Paper has improved, and the price of bamboo pulp board has risen from more than 4,000 yuan/ton in the previous period to more than 6,000 yuan/ton. The profit situation of paper companies has begun to improve, and it is expected that the balance of payments will be basically reached in 10 years. 5. Investment recommendations: ChiTianhua's EPS for 2010, 2011 and 2012 is expected to be 0.12 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.34 yuan. Give recommendations a rating. Risk warning: The risk of natural gas supply and the risk of whether the new coal chemical technology can operate well.

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