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【瑞银证券】冠农股份2012年三季报点评:主业持续减亏,钾肥仍待回暖

瑞銀證券 ·  Oct 22, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company achieved EPS of 0.13 yuan in the third quarter of 2012, and the company achieved net profit of 46.28 million yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. The company achieved investment income of only 66.85 million yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decline of 12.2%, which is the main reason for the decline in the company's performance. Losses in the company's main business continued to decrease. The company has been implementing a slimming plan for its main business since the beginning of the year. Affected by this, the sales revenue of the company's main business declined quarter by quarter, and the company's sales revenue fell 21.8% month-on-month in the third quarter. However, the company's profitability improved markedly. In the third quarter, the gross margin of the company's main business increased by 5.3 and 6.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, and the operating profit loss without considering investment income was 21.66 million yuan, the best year-on-year level since 2010. The extent of losses in the company's main business is expected to continue to decline in the future. Potash prices are not expected to show in the short term, and Luo Potash's investment income is the company's main source of profit. Due to weak domestic demand for potash fertilizer and high inventories, the price of potassium sulfate fell by about 400 yuan/ton in late September. Currently, since fertilizer preparation in spring has ended, downstream compound fertilizer for potash fertilizer has entered a low season, the operating rate of the industry has declined, and port stocks of potash fertilizer are still high, so we expect it is difficult for potash fertilizer prices to rebound in the short term. Valuation: Maintain a “neutral” rating We maintain the company's profit forecast and target price, and maintain a “neutral” rating. The target price is obtained by giving the company's potash business (investment income from Luo Potash) a valuation of 21 times PE corresponding to EPS in 2012.

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