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【东海证券】赤天化:煤化工项目助公司华丽转身

東海證券 ·  Nov 11, 2010 00:00  · Researches

A gas-headed fertilizer company with obvious regional advantages. The company is the largest manufacturer of gas-headed urea in Guizhou. It currently has a production capacity of 720,000 tons of urea. The market share of the company's products in Guizhou has reached more than 60%. As the largest urea manufacturer in Guizhou, the company can fully enjoy the price difference brought about by regional advantages. Higher natural gas prices and insufficient gas supply reduce profit margins. Since the company is at the end of the natural gas supply network, there has been a gap in gas supply for a long time, and the insufficient operating rate has increased the company's production costs. In June of this year, the company's natural gas prices and pipeline transportation costs rose 0.31 yuan per cubic meter, and the unit cost of urea is expected to rise by 200 yuan. Its gross margin declined sharply, and the profitability of urea products declined markedly. Coal resources and technological advantages make the core competitiveness of coal chemical projects. The feedstock prices of Tianfu Chemical and Jinchi Chemical for the two coal chemical projects that the company has invested in are only 550 yuan and about 400 yuan. Compared with the national average price of pulverized coal of 700 yuan, the company's product production cost advantage is obvious, and the surrounding coal resources are abundant, so the supply of coal required for production is guaranteed. Tianfu Chemical and Jinchi Chemical have adopted internationally advanced shell coal gasification technology and Texaco coal water slurry technology to further reduce production costs and guarantee the company's profitability. Tianfu Chemical and Jinchi Chemical will significantly increase the company's profitability after they start production at the end of this year and the second quarter of next year, respectively. We expect the company's EPS for 2010, 2011, and 2012 to be 0.13 yuan, 0.29 yuan, and 0.45 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 56.6 times, 25.4 times, and 16.3 times, maintaining the company's “increased holdings” rating.

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