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【申银万国】赤天化:年报业绩符合预期,煤化工项目逐渐进入收获期

申萬宏源 ·  Apr 7, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The results of the annual report are in line with expectations. In 2009, we achieved revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, profit of 137 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3% and 23%, respectively, and an EPS of 0.40 yuan, in line with our previous expectations (our original expected net profit was 135 million yuan). The main reason for the decline in performance was the low price of pulp, and the paper companies that participated in the shares experienced large losses. The distribution plan is to distribute 0.50 yuan in cash for every 10 shares, and the transfer of capital from capital to capital from the capital reserve fund is 10 to 10. Actively transitioning to coal chemicals, the project is progressing smoothly. The company is actively transforming into coal chemicals and is currently building two major coal chemical bases, Tianfu Chemical and Jinchi Chemical. Tianfu Chemical introduced Shell pulverized coal gasification technology and built 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 200,000 tons of methanol, and 150,000 tons of dimethyl ether. The synthetic ammonia was directly piped to the nearby Wengfu Group, saving transportation costs for both parties involved. Jinchi Chemical introduced coal water slurry gasification technology to build 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 520,000 tons of urea, and 300,000 tons of methanol. Tianfu Chemical is currently undergoing test runs and is expected to complete the process in the second quarter; Jinchi Chemical is currently installing equipment, and is expected to complete installation by the end of 2010, and trial production will begin in early 2011. The company's competitive advantage comes from high urea prices and low coal costs in the Guizhou region, and it is possible to obtain coal resources in the future. Due to low regional supply and inconvenient transportation, urea prices in southwest China are higher than the national average, and urea prices in Guizhou are even higher. The price of chitianhua urea is about 150 yuan/ton higher than outside the province. For the company's two major coal chemical projects, Tianfu Chemical's feedstock coal cost is only about 520 yuan/ton, and Jinchi Chemical's feedstock coal price is only about 400 yuan/ton, which is lower than that of similar enterprises by about 200 yuan/ton. The cost advantage is obvious. Guizhou is rich in coal resources, and may participate in coal mines surrounding coal chemical bases in the future. Maintain an increase in holdings. We maintain our profit forecast for 2010-2012. EPS is 0.42 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 34 times, 22 times, and 18 times, respectively. The short-term stock price is already close to the target price of our previous research report. In the long run, after the two major coal chemical projects, Tianfu and Jinchi, there is still room for growth after the two major coal chemical projects are put into operation, maintaining an increase in holdings ratings.

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