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【浙商证券】创兴置业调研报告:华丽转身铁矿石企业

浙商證券 ·  Jul 19, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Gorgeous transformation into an iron ore enterprise -- iron ore production: The first phase of the iron ore mining project invested by the company is expected to be put into operation in August, with an annual output of 300,000 tons of iron powder; according to the situation of similar local enterprises in Shunda mining industry, the company's iron ore grade is actually 1%-2% higher than the grade at the time of the initial assessment. The cost of iron powder should be competitive to a certain extent; the company's first-phase iron ore production capacity is 1 million tons, and iron powder production is 300,000 tons, but due to local infrastructure design and supporting mining, etc., it is expected that production will be delayed several times this year. Production started in August, 2010 -Production for 2012 is expected to be 50,000 tons, 200,000 tons, and 300,000 tons, respectively. At the beginning of the acquisition of Shenlong Mining, Shanghai Zulong promised the company that it is estimated that the total net profit that Shenlong Mining can achieve in the next three years is 153.2688 million yuan. Part of this guarantee is equivalent to contributing EPS of at least 0.23 yuan to Chuangxing Real Estate over the next three years. ——Future real estate plans to develop five-star hotels: It is expected that the Oriental Hawaii villa project will be completed this year and next two years; the shareholding subsidiary Shanghai Zhenlong Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. still has about 700,000 square meters of development area left. Among them, a five-star hotel commercial real estate project is planned. The company will develop and manage a five-star hotel commercial real estate project. The project will bring continuous development impetus to the company. Other land reserves will continue to benefit from Disney development projects. The company's development progress is slow, making full use of limited land reserve resources. The main risk points: the second phase of the project is still in the early stages of preparation; it has not yet been determined which design company will do the design; the process flow, etc. are still undecided; there is currently no clear plan for the start date of the second phase of iron ore, and there is some uncertainty about the cost. There are few real estate reserves, and there is a certain risk that the company will acquire land in the future. The investment proposal estimates that the three-year EPS from 2010 to 2012 will be 0.34, 0.74, and 0.82 yuan, respectively. According to 14 times the PE predicted by Jinling Mining in 2011, the value of the iron ore portion is 4.57 yuan. Considering that Chuangxing Real Estate will steadily increase production to 800,000 tons of iron powder in the next few years, the valuation will be slightly higher than Jinling Mining. In view of this, the company is given a buying rating, but in terms of certainty, Jinling Mining is clearly superior to the company.

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