Lotus monosodium glutamate rose 34.1% in the four trading days from November 17 to 21. The direct reason for the sharp rise in the company's share price in the short term is that major shareholders are auctioned and may change ownership because of their shareholds. at the same time, the improvement of industry fundamentals and short-term hot money speculation have also contributed to the strength of Lotus Monosodium glutamate.
The news of the major shareholder's share auction led to a rise in the share price. Lotus monosodium glutamate has been plagued by major shareholders since 2001. A total of 7150 million shares of the major shareholders will be auctioned, and the major shareholders may change ownership and be treated as favorable by the market. The company's shares have risen since the second auction of 17.5 million shares failed on Nov. 8, after two failed auctions because the company's share price was close to the auction valuation.
The fundamentals of the industry have improved, and the price of monosodium glutamate has soared by 50% in the past two months. Since the beginning of 2009, the domestic price of monosodium glutamate has been maintained at 7000 yuan / ton-8000 yuan / ton, but since September, the price of monosodium glutamate has soared to the current 12000 yuan / ton. The price of monosodium glutamate is expected to continue to rise to 15000 yuan / ton. Although the sharp rise in the price of monosodium glutamate is caused by the speculation of dealers hoarding goods, the sharp reduction in supply and the increase in environmental protection costs are the main foundation of the price rise.
Profit forecast and investment advice. The company is expected to achieve earnings per share of 0.02 yuan and 0.04 yuan in 2009 and 2010. The company's PE in 2009 and 10 years is 293 times and 147times. Although the fundamentals of the monosodium glutamate industry have improved, the persistence of the rise in monosodium glutamate prices and the actual benefits of lotus monosodium glutamate remain to be seen. Due to the recent increase in the company's stock price, and hot money speculation traces are more obvious. It is suggested that short-term attention should be paid to the trading opportunities brought by the equity auction information of major shareholders, while the medium-and long-term opportunity to build positions depends on the real improvement of the company's performance.
Risk tips: major shareholder change risk; monosodium glutamate price decline risk.