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【兴业证券】锦州港:煤码头建设慢于预期,整合近期发生概率小

興業證券 ·  Apr 19, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The profit growth rate in 2010 was relatively fast, and the production situation in the first quarter was encouraging. The company achieved operating income of 860 million yuan in 2010, up 16.9% year on year, net profit of 218 million yuan, up 34% year on year, and basic earnings per share of 0.139 yuan. Hong Kong achieved a cargo throughput of 58 million tons, an increase of 10.3% over the previous year. There is a high probability that the company will get off to a good start in the first quarter of 2010: in January-February, there were 51,707 port pickup trucks, an increase of 120% over the previous year. Container throughput was 122,300 TEU, up 15.8% year on year. The highlight of future throughput growth is coal, but the construction of the joint venture terminal is progressing slower than expected. However, the three 50,000-ton specialized coal terminal projects in a joint venture between the company and China Power Investment (expected to contribute 30 million tons of coal throughput) are still being negotiated (joint ventures have not yet been established), and China Resources projects are currently being approved. The consolidation of the company at Dalian Port will happen sooner or later, but it is unlikely that it will happen in the near future. Dalian Port became the company's second-largest shareholder through a fixed increase in 2009, holding only 6.425 million fewer shares than Oriental Group, the largest shareholder. Since the “Coastal Port Layout Plan of Liaoning Province” proposes to build a port cluster headed by Dalian Port and Yingkou Port, the integration of Dalian Port with Jinzhou Port will happen sooner or later. However, we believe there is little chance that consolidation will occur in the near future, because the company has both A shares and B shares, and the disposal of B shares still faces policy barriers. Investment advice. Jinzhou Port will be built as a large port with 100 million tons of coal going offshore from Mengdong, but the current joint venture's coal terminal construction process is slower than expected, which will reduce the expected increase in coal throughput in recent years. The integration of Dalian Port with Jinzhou Port will happen sooner or later. The merger will have more advantages than disadvantages for the company, but it is unlikely that it will happen in the near future. The company's 2011-2013 EPS is expected to be 0.16, 0.17, and 0.20 yuan, corresponding PE of 31, 29, and 25 times. The higher valuation already includes consolidated expectations, giving it a “neutral” rating.

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