Comments:
The domestic trade coal market has entered the weakest period in nearly a decade, and Jinzhou Port, which takes domestic trade coal as the absolute main source of goods, has been badly hit.
The decline in the overall domestic economic situation this year, coupled with the import of a large amount of low-cost imported coal into the country, has led to difficulties in ports dominated by domestic coal exports. The coal stocks in the ports around the Bohai Sea are high, and the pressure on the ports is unprecedentedly serious.
Coal is the absolute main source of goods in Jinzhou Port. In 2011, the throughput broke through the 23 million ton mark for the first time, with a compound annual growth rate of 32% over the past five years. This year, the company showed its worst performance since 2000, with port coal throughput plummeting and is expected to fall by 8% for the whole year.
After the completion of the Jinchi-White Railway at the end of 2013, Jinzhou Port will become an important energy transport base for "transporting coal from the north to the south", with a coal transport volume of 35 million-50 million tons.
The completion of the Jinchi-White Railway by the end of 2013 will bring sufficient supply of goods, and Jinzhou Port will soon become one of the 100 million-ton ports. The joint venture coal terminal company matching the railway line, China Power Investment Jinzhou Port Co., Ltd., has been announced on May 4, 2011, and the China Resources Power Holdings coal terminal cooperation project has also been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission.
The commissioning of the general berth on the east bank of Sangangchi has doubled the carrying capacity of bulk cargo, and the "non-main" cargo source also has room for improvement, which is conducive to improving the port supply structure.
In recent years, with the sudden rise of coal goods in Jinzhou Port, the structural contradiction of port berths has become increasingly prominent. The serious shortage of bulk cargo berths leads to the flow of goods to the surrounding ports. In 2011, the port presses a maximum of 68 ships a day.
At the end of July this year, three bulk berths in the third harbor pool were put into operation. The total annual carrying capacity of the berth is 30 million tons, and the coastline of the wharf is 744m long, which is one 35000-ton berth and two 50, 000-ton bulk berths respectively. The wharf can meet the berthing capacity of 100000-ton ships, and the carrying capacity of bulk cargo in the port can be doubled after it is put into production. In the case of ensuring the smooth transfer of main goods such as "coal, mining, grain", there is also room for the development of non-main goods in the past. In August alone, the port loaded and unloaded more than 1700 vehicles of chemical fertilizer, and seven ships arrived at the port for seven times. the throughput of chemical fertilizer was more than that in the first quarter of last year, setting a new high for the port in a single month.
Financial costs are high, and government subsidies are expected to ease the financial pressure.
In 2012, the port plans to invest 2.3 billion yuan in port construction and supporting facilities, which is the highest investment in port construction since the establishment of Jinzhou Port. This year's port construction work will lay a solid foundation for Jinzhou Port to become a 100-million-ton port in 2013. In the first three quarters, short-term loans increased sharply to 555 million yuan from 310 million yuan at the beginning of the period; long-term loans increased from 1.262 billion yuan at the beginning of the period to 2.322 billion yuan; and financial expenses increased by 47.74 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 92 percent.
The company announced in November 2011 that it won 286.5 million yuan in subsidies for 150,000-ton waterway projects allocated by the Ministry of Communications, and 20 million yuan was confirmed in 2011. It received 150 million yuan in May 2012 and the balance of 116.5 million yuan in September 2012. Government subsidies are not directly included in the profits and losses of the current period, but depreciation and amortization are deducted year by year, which is expected to reduce the financial pressure of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
We estimate that the company's EPS from 2012 to 2013 will be 0.10 yuan and 0.14 yuan respectively, corresponding to 37x and 27XPE respectively. The current stock price is not cheap, which to some extent reflects the acquisition expectation of Dalian Port Group. In the long run, large-scale port construction investment is conducive to the sustainable development of the port. With the completion of the Mongolian coal transportation channel in 2013, the company's throughput will double, giving the company 25 times the monthly target price of PE,6 in 2013, downgrading it to "neutral".
Risk hint
The widening price difference between internal and external coal has an impact on domestic coal trade, and the project is put into production later than expected.
