Jinzhou Port is located in Bohai Bay and is actively expanding: Jinzhou Port is the closest port of entry to central and western Northeast China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and northern China. Its throughput is second only to Dalian Port and Yingkou Port in Northeast China. The company's main products include coal, oil, and food. It has already been listed on B shares and A shares, and in 2009 it made targeted increases to Dalian Port at a price of 7.77 yuan per share to expand its main business. Currently, the company is still in the expansion phase. It plans to build a 7.5 square kilometer port area in the West Port area to become a 100 million ton port area. The shareholding structure will remain stable in the short to medium term: the company's second-largest shareholder holds similar shares, and Dalian Port's attempt to integrate the company's history, making the equity dispute a lot of attention. However, at the current stock price, the majority shareholders are unwilling to reduce their holdings; 2. Dalian Port wants an A-share IPO; 3. Jinzhou Port's 220 million B-shares are a barrier to absorption and integration; 4. If the merger cannot be absorbed, then Dalian Port's will to increase its holdings in Jinzhou Port will be drastically weakened due to restrictions on competition in the same industry. Therefore, it is expected that the equity structure will remain stable in the short to medium term. The impact of Mengdong Coal on the company's performance will have to wait until 2013: China Power Investment Mengdong Energy Group Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Power Investment Holdings, has abundant Mengdong coal resources. In addition to being used for the Kengkou Power Plant, China Power Investment plans to transport coal resources to the Southern Power Plant through the Chidabai Railway and Jinzhou Port. It is expected to bring 8-10 million tons/year of coal transportation to Jinzhou Port, accounting for about 50% of the company's current coal throughput. However, it will be necessary to wait until 2013 for the Chidabai Railway and supporting coal terminals to be completed and put into operation. Reclaimed land is a hidden asset: the company owns a land area of about 7.5 square kilometers in the western port area through seawall land reclamation. The cost is low, yet the land value is not reflected in the statements due to lack of revenue. Assuming that 1/4 of the plot is for rent and the rent is 75,500 thousand per mu, the annual rental income is about 200 million. Performance forecast and valuation: The company's business will remain stable in the short term, and gross margin will decline in 2011 due to the second phase of the container terminal. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.19 or 0.2 yuan in 10-11 years. I am optimistic about the commissioning and leasing of the Chidabai Railway and the company's Westport coal terminal in 2013, which will bring the company an increase in performance, giving 30 times PE, and a target price of 5.7 yuan. Furthermore, the current shareholding structure is easily affected by changes in AB share policies, etc., so the company has phased investment opportunities.
【国泰君安】锦州港:蒙东煤炭、AB股政策为公司未来看点
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