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【东方证券】太原重工:产品结构优化提升毛利率

東方證券 ·  Mar 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The study concluded that the product structure has improved markedly, and the overall gross margin has increased markedly. Product sales of excavation equipment, train wheel pairs, and rolling and forging equipment grew strongly, contributing three-quarters of sales revenue. The gross margin of all products has rebounded, mainly due to the easing of rising pressure on raw materials and the increase in the added value of products. The large-scale casting and forging project is nearing completion, and the contribution performance is imminent. The construction of a warehouse in the western district for the localization of large-scale castings and forgings of major technical equipment and large-scale castings and forgings of the company's self-funded construction has been completed, and the propane station and joint pumping station projects have basically been completed. After completion, Taizhong will have a 12,500 ton hydraulic press and supporting equipment, forming an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of castings and 65,000 tons of forgings, mainly producing power plant castings, rollers, containers, etc. The target is to contribute 3 billion yuan in sales revenue and a total profit of 250 million yuan. The Ministry of Railways has strengthened support for the localization of parts, and the high-speed rail project is progressing smoothly. The company carried out pre-investment for the project before the capital was paid, and the annual report revealed that the main equipment such as wheel forging lines, heat treatment lines, processing lines, and testing lines had completed the bidding. The reason behind the rapid progress of China's high-speed rail construction is that important core components are completely dependent on imports. Among them, high-speed rail axles are mainly imported. The Ministry of Railways attaches great importance to parts localization projects, and the company plans to complete and put into operation related projects in 2012. If production is reached, the sales target is to increase sales by 2 billion yuan. All products will meet or exceed the industry's growth rate. In 2011, at least 80% of sales revenue will come from non-metallurgical equipment, and downstream will be scattered across large general equipment fields such as new energy, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and infrastructure. The growth rate of the company's sales scale will remain above 30% over the next three years. We judge that after 2012, infrastructure and wind power products will account for more than 40%, and sales revenue and gross margin levels will increase markedly. Risk factors and catalysts: Uncertainties about the impact of price fluctuations of raw materials such as steel, international and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations, and uncertainty about product development and market expansion for the Tianjin Lingang base project and high-speed train axle localization project are the main risk factors facing the company. The “12th Five-Year Plan” plan and the introduction of policies related to supporting major equipment are major catalysts for the company's stock price. Valuation and investment ratings: In view of the uncertainty of orders for nuclear power related products, it is predicted that the company's EPS for 11-13 will be 1.04, 1.38, and 2.21 yuan, giving the company a PE valuation of 28 times the average price-earnings ratio of the company's machinery industry. The reasonable stock price corresponding to the 2011 forecast of EPS is 29.12 yuan. Currently, the stock price is underestimated, maintaining the company's purchase investment rating.

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