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【银河证券】卧龙地产公司简评研究报告:期待销售更好

中國銀河 ·  Mar 12, 2013 00:00  · Researches

1. The incident company announced its 2012 annual report: achieving operating income of 767.166 million yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 74.254,400 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.36%, equivalent to earnings per share of 0.10 yuan; net assets attributable to listed shareholders of 1.98 yuan per share, a year-on-year decrease of 4.35%. 2. Our analysis and judgment (1) The performance settlement fell short of expectations. Judging from the annual report published by the company and our research data, the 2012 settlement focused on the Qingyuan Century City housing project (280 million yuan), the Wuhan Lijingwan project (310 million yuan), and the Shangyu Tianxiang Huating project (82.5 million yuan). The company's final settlement revenue and performance in 2012 fell short of our expectations, mainly because sales of the Shangyu Tianxiang Huating project fell short of expectations, which ultimately led to insufficient performance release. (2) Sales in 2013 can still be expected that sales of the Wolong real estate project in 2012 were slightly lower than expected, but sales of some projects were also good, such as the Wuhan Lijingwan project and the Qingyuan Century City project, which were positioned in rigid demand, while the Shangyu project did not have ideal sales due to the desolation of the local property market. In 2013, we think we can still look forward to sales of Wolong Real Estate. The main reason is that the 2013 promotion focus is still on the much-needed Wuhan Lijingwan project, Qingyuan project, and Tianxiang Huating project; at the same time, a new project, the Wuhan Moshui Lake project, will also be launched, contributing to sales performance. 3. Investment recommendations According to our research and tracking of Wolong real estate projects, in 2013, Wolong Real Estate's performance mainly came from the Shangyu Tianxiang Huating, Qingyuan Century City, and Wuhan Lijingwan projects; at the same time, the company's 2012 annual report showed that the 2013 settlement was 1.3 billion yuan and the cost cost was 1,085 billion yuan. However, due to insufficient pre-sale funding, we expect Wolong Real Estate to have settlement revenue of 1,294 million yuan in 2013 and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 144 million yuan, equivalent to earnings per share of about 0.20 million yuan. According to performance forecasts, the current stock price corresponding to the dynamic PE in 2013 is 17.3 times, and the NAV valuation is 5.3 yuan/share, at a discount of 35%. With the position of rigidly demanding products for new market entry projects and the improvement of the sales situation, Wolong Real Estate's sales may perform well; at the same time, the current NAV discount rate is not low, so overall, careful recommendations are given.

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