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【中信证券】太原重工2010年年报点评:业绩增长稳健,未来亮点渐多

中信證券 ·  Mar 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company's performance increased 17.7% year over year. In 2010, the company achieved a total operating income of %54 million yuan, up 19.6% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 652 million yuan, up 17.7% year on year, or 0.91 yuan per share, lower than our expectations. The main reason is that the increase in the three cost rates and the negative impact of non-recurring profit and loss exceeded our expectations, and the company's operating income and gross margin levels were in line with our expectations. The original business will grow steadily. Mining excavators are the biggest highlight. In 2010, sales revenue was 2.19 billion yuan (including coking equipment), a year-on-year increase of 243%, gross margin of 221,63%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points over the previous year; forging equipment also achieved relatively rapid growth. In 2010, sales revenue was 2.17 billion yuan, up 24.5% year on year, gross margin was 123%, up 1.6 percentage points year on year; wind power, coal chemical and other businesses also achieved relatively rapid growth. We expect the company's current business to grow steadily at an average annual rate of 20% over the next three years. The large industrial layout is expected to bear fruit next year. The targeted additional distribution projects completed by the company in the past two years are of great strategic significance to the company's future long-term development. We judge that the three major projects of Tianjin Lingang Base/high-speed rail axle localization/large-scale casting and forging (10,000 ton hydraulic press) will all begin production next year and contribute a certain amount of revenue. In the future, they are expected to become the company's new performance growth engine to ensure that the company achieved an average annual performance growth of about 30% in 2012/2013. Risk factors: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the decline in the prosperity of the steel industry exceeding expectations, and the increase in raw material prices exceeding expectations. Maintaining the “buy” rating: Based on the company's performance in 2010, we adjusted its 2011/2012 EPS forecast to 1.02/L.35 yuan (after full dilution). The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 23.6/17.8 times, respectively, which is still low compared to other companies in the same industry. We still have an optimistic judgment on the company's fundamentals, and at the same time maintain its “buy” rating, considering that the company's steady growth in future performance is highly certain.

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