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【民生证券】卧龙地产研究报告:背靠“东方西门子”,翰龙腾飞正当时

民生證券 ·  Dec 7, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Backed by Siemens of the East, companies with potential for regional expansion have about 2.46 million square meters of equity land reserves, distributed in Shangyu, Wuhan, Qingyuan, Shaoxing, Shengzhou, Yinchuan, and Qingdao. Wolong Holdings, the majority shareholder, started with electrical manufacturing. After completing the acquisition of ATB in Austria, it was one step closer to the “Oriental Siemens” vision. The real estate business is one of the three major shareholders' industries, and the strong strength of the majority shareholders continued to grow. With second-tier provincial capitals and third-tier cities with an urbanization rate of less than 50% as the core, companies that pursue high cost performance and high profit margins lay out second- and third-tier cities earlier, and have clear goals for choosing to enter cities, mainly second-tier provincial capitals and third-tier cities with an urbanization rate of not more than 50%. In project selection, the company pursues high cost performance. Good at obtaining projects through mergers and acquisitions to save costs and increase turnover speed. Obtain concessions on land costs by participating in urban village renovation and guaranteed housing construction. Increase the added value of products through supporting commercial and decoration quality. Project reserves have increased rapidly since 2010, and sales may increase significantly next year. The company's project reserves in 2010 and 2011 have increased significantly, and the outstanding equity construction area has increased by 45.76% and 18.78%, respectively. The increase in project reserves provides a basis for the company's future sales revenue growth. This year, the company's new construction area is about 300,000 square meters, and the sales payback is expected to reach 700 million yuan. Next year, it plans to start a new construction area of 530,000 square meters, and the planned repayment amount is 1.6 billion yuan, which is a significant increase over this year. Practicing internal skills in regulation and refusing to hibernate under the pressure of policy regulation, the company did not choose to hibernate, but instead made timely adjustments to the management department. Set up regional management headquarters in Wuhan and Shangyu to increase the synergy of projects within the region. Set up a design center and marketing center to form a “big two ends, small middle” management model to improve efficiency and save costs. Financial analysis companies have relatively few projects and large price differences, and differences in calculation items from year to year cause large fluctuations in revenue and profit. Beginning in 2011, the management expense ratio increased rapidly in the short term due to the decline in carry-over revenue. In the future, with the increase in carry-over income and the effective operation of the management model, the management expense ratio will return to a reasonable level, with sufficient capital and good short-term liquidity. The investment proposal predicts that the company's revenue for the next three years will be 730 million yuan, 1.22 billion yuan and 1.83 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS 0.12 yuan, 0.21 yuan and 0.35 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE in 2013 and 2014 is 17 times and 10 times PE, respectively. NAV is valued at $5.26, and the current stock price is discounted by 36%. Give it a “Highly Recommended” rating. Risks suggest that the company's project completion progress is lower than expected; project sales are blocked; real estate industry regulation policies have exceeded expectations, etc.

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