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【兴业证券】G一东:对公司未来发展不看好

[Societe Generale Securities] G Yidong: not optimistic about the future development of the company

興業證券 ·  Aug 1, 2006 00:00  · Researches

The clutch is located in the flywheel housing between the engine and the gearbox, which temporarily separates and gradually engages the engine and the gearbox to cut off or transmit the power input from the engine to the transmission. Clutch is divided into mechanical, electromagnetic, fluid Sassafras, fluid, the company's products are mainly mechanical Sassafras clutch-diaphragm spring clutch.

The company introduces automotive diaphragm spring clutch products and manufacturing technology from AP Company in the UK. After digestion, absorption and production capacity expansion, the company has formed an annual production capacity of 1.2 million sets and 120 varieties of clutches. The company's products cover heavy, medium, passenger, light, sedan chair, micro, various automobiles and agricultural transporters.

There are about 100 domestic clutch manufacturers. The larger ones are Hangzhou Xihu clutch Co., Ltd., Changchun Yidong, Shanghai Saks Powertrain parts system Co., Ltd., Guilin Fuda Automobile parts Co., Ltd., Sanhuan Huangshi Automobile clutch Co., Ltd. The company's products are mainly FAW Group, Changan Automobile and Dongan Power, in which the clutch of medium and heavy trucks is the company's strength, and its profit is good. Although there are a large number of clutches for light vehicles and mini cars, their profitability is poor.

The main raw materials for clutch are spring plate (50CYVA), low carbon steel plate (08AL, 08F), steel strip (65Mn) and steel bar (Y15F20), as well as castings, forgings, parts (standard parts, asbestos, etc.) and other external parts. Due to the rising price of raw materials and the price reduction of the mainframe factory, the profitability of the company's products has declined year by year.

In the future, the faster growth part is cars, but at present, domestic medium and high-grade cars basically use torque converters (wet clutches) rather than this kind of mechanical clutch, and low-grade car clutches are mostly imported or fixed manufacturers. Therefore, the growth of car consumption will not help the company's performance in the future.

The company's competitive products are mainly concentrated in medium and heavy trucks, and this part of sales is mainly related to the truck sales of FAW Group. The poor sales of FAW heavy trucks have affected the company's performance in recent years. Changan, Dongan micro-car clutch gross profit margin level is low, although the number is more, but the profit is limited.

The company has all the processes from machining, heat treatment to stamping and assembly, which forms a large and comprehensive pattern, which is not in line with the characteristics of professional division of labor, resulting in higher cost of production parts and unstable quality. The company's advantage lies in the accumulation of experience in heat treatment and assembly, and the cost of some non-critical processes such as machining and stamping can be reduced by outsourcing. However, if the company outsourced some parts, it will make more redundant staff appear.

At present, the company has more than 1000 people, half of whom are enough to meet the production demand, and there is a serious surplus of personnel, which is a burden for the development of the company.

Under the background of increasingly fierce competition in the industry and rising prices of raw materials, there are too many people and management efficiency needs to be improved. As a company with annual sales revenue of 300 million to 400 million, it is conceivable that its profit situation will not be very good.

According to the survey, we predict that the company's net profit in 2006 will be 7.42 million yuan, and earnings per share will be 0.05 yuan. In 2007, the net profit was 8.44 million yuan, and the earnings per share was 0.06 yuan. At present, PE is much higher than the industry average, and we give it a wait-and-see rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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