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【招商证券】乐凯胶片:加速转型,改革激发活力

招商證券 ·  Aug 27, 2014 00:00  · Researches

With the photovoltaic industry recovering and diaphragm production capacity gradually reaching production, the company will enter a period of rapid growth. The 2014-2016 EPS is expected to be 0.11/0.17/0.27 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 112 times and PB 4 times, respectively. There is huge space for photovoltaic backpanels and lithium battery separators, and the Group's high-quality assets are expected to be injected, and the market space is tens of billions of dollars. Optimistic about the huge potential contained in the company's transformation and group reform, it was given a “Highly Recommended - A” rating for the first time. The diaphragm sample has been approved, and there is huge room for replacement. In 2013, the global demand for lithium battery diaphragms was 837 million square meters, and it will continue to grow by 25%-30% in the future. Relying on the three core technologies of coating, film formation, and particles accumulated by the Group over 50 years, the company has obvious technical advantages in developing diaphragms. The company's pilot samples were well received by customers and recognized by Lishen and other major customers. High-end wet diaphragms are heavily dependent on imports, and there is huge room for import substitution. The product price and profitability are expected to be superior to dry diaphragms. Traditional business is stable, and photovoltaic backpanels are expected to recover. After color film production was discontinued, the company's traditional business basically bottomed out, and photo paper and photosensitive materials will remain stable in the future. The PV installed capacity in the first half of 2014 was only 3GW, which is seriously below the annual target of 13GW. Driven by the policy, the photovoltaic industry will usher in a wave of installed capacity in the second half of the year, and the backboard business is expected to recover rapidly. The fund-raising project will have a production capacity of 15 million square meters of backboards after delivery, and will contribute more than 500 million yuan in revenue. With the reform of state-owned enterprises, the pace of securitization of group assets is expected to accelerate. The total assets of the Group in 2013 were 7.18 billion yuan, seven times that of listed companies, a typical large group of small companies. In this round of state-owned enterprise reform, the Aerospace Science and Technology Group is making great efforts to promote it. The Lekai Group is mainly a civilian product, and there is relatively little resistance to reform. In 2013, the listed company changed a new chairman and general manager, and this year it began refinancing to acquire the group's diaphragm assets, indicating that the securitization of high-quality assets that the market has been concerned about for a long time has accelerated. The Group's high-quality projects, such as PVB film, TAC film, and PVA film, have tens of billions of dollars in market space, and the added value of the products is high, so it is worth focusing on in the future. For the first time, an investment rating of “Highly Recommended - A” has been given. The production capacity of photovoltaic backpanels and diaphragms is gradually being released, and the company will enter a period of rapid growth. The 2014-2016 EPS is expected to be 0.11/0.17/0.27 yuan, respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 112/71/44 times and PB 4 times, respectively. In the early stages of transformation, short-term valuations were high, but there was huge space for photovoltaic backboards and lithium battery separators. There is an expectation that the group's high-quality assets will be injected. They are optimistic about the huge potential contained in the company's transformation and group reform, so for the first time, it has been given a “Highly Recommended - A” rating. Risk warning: PV industry recovery falls short of expectations; diaphragm production progress is delayed; group reform falls short of expectations

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