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【广发证券】郑州煤电:投资收益和利润补偿,或将支撑15年业绩

廣發證券 ·  Apr 27, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The sale of Fangzheng Securities shares in 2014 benefited 340 million yuan. The company achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 60 million yuan in 2014, an increase of 44% over the previous year, equivalent to earnings of 0.06 yuan per share. Among them, the EPS for a single quarter was 0.00 yuan, -0.05 yuan, -0.12 yuan, and 0.23 yuan, respectively. The results for the fourth quarter reversed losses, mainly due to the sale of Fangzheng Securities shares, which received investment income of 340 million yuan. The company's net profit after deduction in 2014 was 200 million yuan. At the beginning of 2014, the company held 79.96 million shares of Fangzheng Securities; sold 42.75 million shares in the 4th quarter of '14; sold 20.56 million shares in the 1st quarter of '15; currently, the remaining 16.65 million shares remain. Coal production is basically stable. The group needs profit compensation of 116 million yuan. The company produced 10.95 million tons of raw coal in 2014, a decrease of 2% over the previous year; the price of tons of coal was 364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12% or 50 yuan/ton; the cost of tons of coal was 252 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10% or 28 yuan/ton; and the net profit per ton of coal was 18 yuan/ton. The company has seven pairs of production mines, and coal production is basically stable at around 11 million tons. Among them, four coal mines, Baiping Mine, Zhaojiazhai Mine, Jiaojiazhai Mine, and Lugou Coal Mine, were imported from Zheng Coal Group in 2012. Zheng Coal Group promised net profit of 373 million yuan after deduction for the four coal mines in 2014; it actually completed 257 million yuan. We expect that Zheng Coal Group will need to pay compensation of 116 million yuan to listed companies in 2015. The group's asset injection needs to be completed by 2018 with a total approved production capacity of 37.85 million tons/year for the Zheng Coal Group; the approved production capacity of listed companies outside the body is 26.95 million tons/year. In 2014, Zheng Coal Group produced 18.58 million tons, and the external production of listed companies was 7.63 million tons. A quicksand accident occurred in Huayuan Coal Industry of Zheng Coal Group in '13, and it is expected that injection conditions will be met in '16. Other coal mines of Zheng Coal Group are expected to be injected into listed companies by 2018. We expect the company's 15-17 performance to be 0.03 yuan, -0.11 yuan, and 0.04 yuan respectively. Although the company's 15-year coal business losses will expand further; however, we expect that relying on sellers' securities securities stocks and the group's profit compensation of 116 million yuan, the company is likely to achieve profit in 2015. Given the weak profitability of the company's main business, we expect the company to actively seek transformation. Until the company's transformation is clear, we are giving a holding rating for the time being. Risk warning: The company's market capitalization is small, and actively seeking transformation or state-owned enterprise reform may stimulate stock prices.

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