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【东兴证券】长征电气:矿业整合再进一步,重估空间向上拓展

東興證券 ·  Apr 14, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company recently announced important matters relating to the acquisition of three mining companies and a prospecting area. The equity transfer agreements signed by the company and the mining company are all “letters of intent to transfer shares”, and no formal equity transfer agreement has yet been signed. The prospecting rights transfer agreement signed between the company and the natural person is the “Letter of Intent to Transfer Prospecting Rights”, and the formal prospecting rights transfer agreement has not yet been signed. The transfer prices of the equity and prospecting rights transfer agreements involved have not been determined. The transfer prices will all be generated through negotiations between the parties to the transaction based on the assessed value, and specified in the formal transfer contract. The current market value of the company is 9.65 billion, the mining rights reserve value is 22.236 billion, and the market capitalization/resource value is 0.434. The resource value considering prospecting rights is 37.2 billion, and the market capitalization/resource value is only 0.26, which is still the lowest level among mining backbone companies. Previously, our ST bias as the valuation standard was due to the discovery of rhenium ore, which implied a large amount of rhenium ore value in the market value. We used gold and molybdenum shares as a comparable target. Gold and molybdenum shares currently have a market value of 81.3 billion yuan, equity molybdenum ore reserves of 1.24 million tons, a resource value of 26.4 billion yuan, market capitalization/resource value of 0.312. Since there is still plenty of room for integrating resources in the future, Changzheng Electric can give a certain epitaxial expansion premium. We believe that the market value/resource value ratio can be given a higher 0.35 according to the mining market weight The value is At 7.78 billion yuan, the corresponding stock price is 18.35 yuan. According to the total resource value of mining rights and prospecting rights, the market value is 13.02 billion yuan, and the corresponding stock price is 30.71 yuan. The company's original business EPS was around 0.2 yuan, and a corresponding valuation of 4 yuan was given for 20 times PE. After comprehensive consideration, the medium-term target price was raised to 30 yuan, the long-term target price was maintained at 35 yuan, and the “Highly Recommended” rating was maintained.

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