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【华泰联合证券】ST金花:业绩反转,债务清偿可期

華泰聯合證券 ·  Oct 26, 2011 09:00  · Researches

Incident: The company achieved operating income of 263 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2011, an increase of 11.48% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 41.28 million yuan, EPS was 0.14 yuan; net profit after deduction was 5.77 million yuan, breaking the ice. Breaking the ice with net profit after deduction: Driven by high growth in the pharmaceutical industry, the company broke the ice with net profit of 5.77 million yuan after deduction in its three-quarter report. Revenue for the third quarter was 109 million yuan, up 31.6% year on year; operating profit continued to grow steadily since the first correction in the second quarter, reaching 8.44 million yuan. We believe that, driven by the high growth of Jintiange capsules, the company's pharmaceutical industry is sufficient to support the company to achieve a true reversal in performance, and “cap removal” can be expected. The pharmaceutical industry is out of its way: In the first half of the year, the pharmaceutical industry achieved revenue of 68.32 million yuan, an increase of 24.8% over the previous year; gross margin reached a new high of 77.19%, an increase of 16.67%. This was mainly due to the impact of low gross profit generic drug revenue due to relocation. Jintiange capsules are the number one brand of drugs for osteoporosis. After entering the medical insurance list, their market share continued to increase. With the company's vigorous promotion, we expect that the annual sales revenue of Jintiange capsules is expected to exceed 100 million yuan. The debt bondage is expected to be lifted during the year: The company also announced that it will package idle assets and 104.5 million yuan of debt after the relocation and transfer 278 million yuan to Oriental Huading Investment and Development Co., Ltd., involving total assets of 359 million yuan and net assets of 254 million yuan. The heavy debt burden tied to the company is expected to be lifted within the year. In the future, the company will go to battle lightly and concentrate on developing the pharmaceutical industry. The pharmaceutical business is in a difficult period: the 12th Five-Year Plan for Pharmaceutical Distribution aims to increase industry concentration. Whether it is epitaxial expansion or normal operation, a large amount of capital turnover is required. As the company is working to pay off debts, the company's pharmaceutical commercial business continues to decline due to insufficient capital, and we expect its future revenue to continue to decline. Profit forecast: Driven by the high growth of Jintiange capsules, we raised the company's revenue in 11-13 to 3.54, 4.04, and 476 million yuan, while EPS was 0.39, 0.23, and 0.31 yuan, respectively. In 2011, after excluding 104 million non-operating income and expenses, EPS was 0.05 yuan, which was corrected. In view of the reversal of the company's performance, they are optimistic about the medicinal and health value of artificial tiger bones, and continue to maintain the “gain” rating. Risk warning: Jin Tiange's sales are slowing down; debt settlement progress is lower than expected.

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