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【东方证券】新天国际:轻装上阵 另辟新天

東方證券 ·  Jun 6, 2006 12:00  · Researches

There is no time to delay restructuring the balance sheet. At the end of the first quarter of 2006, Xintian International's adjusted net assets per share were 0.52 yuan, and the balance ratio was as high as 81.57%. The financial expenses for a single quarter reached 2.9 times the main profit. The poor balance sheet has become a heavy burden on Xintian's development. Restructuring the balance sheet is not expensive. According to the first quarter report, Xintian International's active assets are about 1.9 billion yuan, and the corresponding total liabilities are 1.8 billion yuan. By the end of 2005, real estate companies still had 536 million yuan of developed real estate on their books. Based on a 30% premium calculation, the value of all assets and liabilities other than wine was about 260 million yuan. The above simple calculation shows that if done properly, Xintian International will not be expensive to completely restructure its balance sheet. Xintian Group already has plans to integrate. Concentrating superior resources to expand and strengthen the wine industry has been determined as Xintian International's long-term strategy, so withdrawal from other industries is already anticipated in the market. We learned from our research that Xintian Group, the majority shareholder, already intends to restructure the non-main business assets of listed companies and will further strengthen the listed companies' control over the wine business, but the exact method and timing are still unknown. The impact of high-quality asset injections will not be considered yet. In addition to wine, Xintian Group's current development focus is on the energy industry. It already has several coal mining assets, is in negotiations to purchase an oil field in Kazakhstan, and also has a five-star hotel in the Lujiazui region of Pudong. The market has many expectations for the Group to inject high-quality assets into listed companies, but we have not received confirmation from the company during our research. We are cautiously optimistic about the rise of Xintian wine. Xintian's tortuous development since 2001 shows that even in an industry with good prospects, it is difficult for second-tier brands to break through with resource advantages alone, and marketing ability is the key to achieving the “continuity” of a “thrilling leap forward.” This year, Xintian made two major adjustments to sales company executives. It plans to implement a new marketing strategy starting in July. The prospects are worth looking forward to. For the first time, an investment rating of increased holdings has been given. Considering only the wine industry, we expect EPS from 2006 to 2008 to be -0.08 yuan, 0.1 yuan, and 0.25 yuan respectively. The target price is 5 yuan within 6 months, and the target price is 6.25 yuan within 24 months, giving an investment rating of increased holdings.

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