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【方正证券】中葡股份公司财报点评:经营改善业绩超预期

方正證券 ·  Feb 7, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Investment Highlights On February 7, the company released its 2012 report: In 2012, the company achieved operating income of 619 million yuan, net profit attributable to listed companies of 9.95 million yuan, net profit after deduction of negative 85.49 million yuan, and net cash flow from operating activities of 62.11 million yuan. The review performance exceeded expectations: the company's revenue increased 15.26% year on year, exceeding our expectations by 9.14%, and surpassing the market's unanimous expectations; the company's net profit in 2011 was a loss of 184 million yuan, and net profit after deduction was a loss of 222 million yuan. There were significant improvements over the year in 2012, all of which exceeded our expectations and that of the market. The net cash outflow from operating activities has declined sharply, and the operating results are improving: the company's net cash flow from operating activities in 2011 was negative 264 million yuan, and the net outflow decreased by more than 200 million yuan compared to 2012, indicating that the company's business situation is healthier and indicates that the company is gradually embarking on a healthy development path. Sales expenses and management expenses decreased by 9.59 and 7.33 percentage points, respectively, over the same period last year, indicating a significant improvement in the company's management level. The company's sales revenue for finished wine increased by 28%, and the construction of the marketing system is progressing smoothly: the company's main wine sales revenue in 2012 was 397 million yuan, down 14.3% from 463 million yuan in 2011, but sales revenue of finished wine increased by 28%. Under the severe overall situation in the wine industry last year, it further highlighted the company's effectiveness in building sales channels. We believe that the decline in the company's overall wine revenue may be due to the company's expectations and confidence in opening up its own sales channels for finished wine products. At the same time, the industry situation is poor, and other companies are less motivated to purchase base wine from the company. Since the profitability of base wine sales is far lower than that of finished wine, the gross margin of alcohol sales increased 12 percentage points year on year in 2012. Turning a loss into profit from the sale of assets reflects the strengthening of the company's marketization: the company achieved a profit of more than 79 million yuan in the fourth quarter, making a huge contribution to the company's turning a loss into profit. We believe that revitalizing assets will improve the company's economic efficiency and focus on the main wine business, while also laying the foundation for the company's steady operation and reflecting the strengthening of the company's market-based philosophy; in addition, this annual report also provides a lot of detailed information not found in previous years, reflecting the company's positive attitude of connecting with the capital market, all of which are beneficial to safeguarding investors' interests. Future stock price catalyst: Company channels and brand building are progressing smoothly, and products are recognized by the market. Profit forecast and rating: Considering the explosive growth of the company's performance in the fourth quarter, the improvement in product quality, and the smooth development of marketing construction, the company is expected to earn 0.02, 0.05, and 0.07 yuan per share in 2013-2015, maintaining the company's “gain” rating. Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies, market development falls short of expectations; the company's current debt ratio is high, and there are certain financial risks

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