"Binhai New area" concept stocks will benefit from the construction of Binhai High-tech Zone. Tianjin Binhai High-tech Zone is the only "national high-tech zone" jointly built by the Ministry of Science and Technology and Tianjin, and it is the "navigation zone" of Binhai New area. After more than three years of construction, the output value of Tianjin's high-tech industry has accounted for 1/3 of the industry. according to the plan, the average annual growth of Tianjin's high-tech industrial output value will reach 20% from 2006 to 2010.
"large groups-small listed companies" model, capital injection is expected to be strong. The controlling shareholder of the company has a land reserve of 25 square kilometers in Binhai New area, which is twice that of Huayuan Industrial Zone. It is understood that this part of the assets will be gradually concentrated in listed companies in accordance with the policy of "maturing one piece, injecting one piece". It is estimated that the area of land injected first in the future will reach 2.6-3.6 square kilometers, which can roughly increase the company's revalued net asset value by 200% in 2009 by 250%.
The business structure with industrial real estate as the core and leasing and selling at the same time can advance and retreat freely. In the past two years, the company has gradually divested its shares and assets which have no synergistic effect with industrial real estate. Industrial real estate business has become the company's core source of income and profit. In the first half of 2008, property sales and leasing income accounted for 67.5% and 18.3% of the main business income, respectively. With the gradual increase in the proportion of leasing business, we expect that by 2010, these two businesses will account for 60% and 35% of the main business income, respectively.
The compound growth rate of net profit will reach 24.7% between 2007 and 10 years. Out of concern about the economic downturn, we assume that the average price of the company's sales projects in 2009 has dropped by 5% on the basis of 2008, the 10-year average price is the same as that in 2009, and the rent level of the company's leased properties in 09 and 10 years is the same as in 2008. It is estimated that the net profits attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2008, 2009 and 10 years are 130 million yuan, 160 million yuan and 210 million yuan respectively, according to the current diluted earnings per share of 0.41,0.50 and 0.64 yuan.
Risk hint: the deterioration of international and domestic macro-economy in 2009 dealt a serious blow to software companies, resulting in difficulties in attracting investment in BPO bases.
Give "overweight" investment rating. Without considering the asset injection of major shareholders in the future, the company's existing assets are revalued at 2.78 billion yuan and RNAV is 8.61 yuan. According to the PE valuation, the value of the company's shares should be between 8.0 and 9.8 yuan per share. To sum up, we set the company's target price of 8.9 yuan per share, an increase of 19.3% on the current stock price, so it was rated as "overweight" for the first time.