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【东方证券】海泰发展:美好前程在望

[Oriental Securities] Haitai Development: a bright future is in sight

東方證券 ·  Jul 13, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Our previous judgment about the company as a whole was basically correct. 1) full of vitality. The company is becoming more and more professional in the development of high-tech parks. 2) Youth. Our view on the company's investment income through the transfer of projects: the early stage of the company is in the stage of "making money and doing", and the strategy is slightly chaotic; project transfer is not only a passive choice affected by fluctuations in the real estate market, but also an active move of strategic return; in view of the fact that the company is in the growth period of youth, the possibility that this kind of behavior will still occur in the future cannot be ruled out. 3) the core area of the National Software and Service Outsourcing Industry Base (BPO) is a key project for company construction and investment promotion in 2009. The BPO base covers an area of 440,000 square meters, with an overall planned construction area of 740,000 square meters. The company plans to hold and operate 70% of the project. The first phase of 280,000 square meters has now entered the rental and sale stage. At present, the scale of the property held by the company is about 120000 square meters, and the BPO base will be completed in three years. At that time, the area of the property owned by the company will exceed 600,000 square meters. 4) Binhai High-tech Zone: years of imagination, now realized? Binhai High-tech Zone is not only the focus of the company, but also the power source of future growth. 5) the investment income will be the main source of the company's profit in 2009. In terms of park development: the substantial increase in corporate leasing business income takes time, the development of BPO base and coastal high-tech zone can not produce large profits in 2009; the profitability of businesses outside the park development, such as building materials logistics and incubation services, is not strong. Investment income will be the main source of profits this year, which is expected to be between 60 million and 110 million yuan. Among them, the investment income of the remaining 48.72% equity transfer of Huading Real Estate is 19.49 million yuan; 98.95% of the equity transfer of Hongpan Real Estate is expected to generate a profit of 40 million yuan; we believe that as a reservoir, there is also the possibility of resale, if the sale is expected to generate a profit of about 50 million yuan.

The size of the asset injection is expected to be: land area of 880000 square meters, construction area of 1.82 million square meters. This data is collated by us according to the public information, and the actual situation shall be subject to the announcement of the company. Our derivation is based on the data of Tianjin Land Exchange Center to sort out the land area of Binhai High-tech Zone auctioned by companies owned by major shareholders so far this year, and to verify the rationality of the injection scale according to the change of shareholding ratio of major shareholders. The detailed derivation process is shown in the attached table on the next page.

It is expected that the subsequent asset injection will continue. Major shareholders have repeatedly expressed their full support for listed companies. We believe that except for some of the 25 square kilometers of land in the Binhai High-tech Zone, there is a possibility of injection; among them, the starting area of the Binhai High-tech Zone is 2.6sq km, assuming that the scale is 880000 square meters this time, then there are still 172,000,000 square meters in the starting area to be injected, which is expected to be the next step considered by the major shareholders after this asset injection.

According to the company's existing development and proposed transfer projects, we expect the company's performance in 2010 to be under pressure. This asset injection will not bring development income in a short time, just like our logic of judging the performance in 2009, without the investment return of existing projects, the pressure on the performance of the company in 10 years will be greater. We believe that the solution is: depending on the maturity of the injected assets, we can consider taking the form of cooperative development to coordinate the distribution of long-term and short-term income and partially alleviate the pressure of performance growth next year.

Temporarily maintain the company's profit forecast for this year and next year, that is, the earnings per share in 2009 and 2010 are 0.30 yuan and 0.35 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 28.6 times and 24.5 times respectively. Temporarily maintain the "overweight" rating, wait for the company to announce the details of the asset injection before making adjustments.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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