The company's current business situation is good. The company announced a 50% increase in performance in 2009. Thus, the EPS for the fourth quarter of 2009 is expected to be above 0.06 yuan. The business situation in the first quarter of '10 is expected to be close to that of the fourth quarter of '09. Under a neutral scenario, we expect the company's 10-year performance to be 0.28 yuan. The company's products closely revolve around the application of new electronics. Currently, the company mainly provides lenses and lenses for digital cameras, mobile phones, and projectors, and further explores the security monitoring market. The number of digital cameras added globally in '09 was about 120 million, which is expected to increase by 8.3% in '10; the number of new camera phones added is about 1.0 billion, which is expected to increase by 13.5% in '10; and the number of new projectors added in '09 was about 6.2 million, and is expected to grow by 12.9% in '10. Among them, the number of new DSLR cameras in 2009 was about 12.9 million, which is expected to grow by 22.5% in 10 years; the CCTV surveillance market has grown exponentially. The total size of the global optical lens market in 10 years was about 70 billion yuan, and the market share of Phoenix Optics was around 1.3%. After this round of financial crisis, there are clear signs of a shift of mid-range and low-end lenses and lenses to the mainland. The company's market share is expected to increase by undertaking such transfers. The company's outstanding problem is that its products are relatively low-end, with a consolidated gross margin of 15.5% in the third quarter of '09. In terms of product development and marketing, the company's pace has always been half a beat slower. Mechanisms are the main reason. Currently, the development momentum of Jiangxi and Anhui is strong, and it is believed that the institutional problems will be solved soon. Combining the comprehensive considerations of PE, PS, and PB, and the company's improvement potential, we gave a 10-year valuation of 40 times, and the reasonable price should be 11.2 yuan.
【华泰联合证券】凤凰光学:凤凰何时起飞
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