From January to September 2009, the company's operating income was 1,841 billion yuan, down 15% year on year; total profit was 69.23 million yuan, down 84% year on year; and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 62.69 million yuan, down 80% year on year. Basic earnings per share are 0.096 yuan. Among them, from July to September 2009, basic earnings per share were 0.046 yuan. Affected by the macroeconomy, demand in the phosphorus chemical industry was weak, and prices fell sharply year on year, leading to a decline in the company's operating income and profit. However, the company gradually expanded its market share in a sluggish situation in the industry. On a quarterly basis, the company's consolidated gross margin recovered to 20.5% in the third quarter, the highest since the fourth quarter of last year, up 4.4 and 6.8 percentage points, respectively, from the previous two quarters. However, the expense ratio for the period was basically stable, resulting in a significant month-on-month increase in profit in the third quarter. In the future, the phosphorus chemical industry will develop in the two directions of upstream integration and refinement. At present, the company has a comprehensive annual production capacity of about 1 million tons of phosphorus chemical products. With the commissioning of two yellow phosphorus bases in Xuanwei and Mile in Yunnan in 2008, the company has formed a complete industrial chain of mining (phosphate ore, coal mine) - electricity - yellow phosphorus - fine phosphorus chemical series products - phosphorus chemical products logistics distribution. A non-public offering of projects will enhance the company's strengths. The company plans to issue 30 to 150 million shares to no more than ten specific investors to acquire 55% of the shares of the Leidatan Hydropower Station held by the controlling shareholder Chengxing Group and carry out 65,000 tons/year calcium phosphate technical improvement project. Electricity accounts for more than 50% of yellow phosphorus costs, and the acquisition of hydropower plants will further reduce production costs. The plan has now been approved by the shareholders' meeting. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise in the near future, which is expected to increase the company's profit. Currently, Yunnan is still implementing electricity prices during the abundant water period, and the price of yellow phosphorus is around 12,000 yuan/ton. Since the dry water period is approaching, some enterprises are starting to stock up and waiting to rise. As Southeast Asia relies on Chinese yellow phosphorus, its import prices have begun to rise. The rise in yellow phosphorus prices will drive downstream phosphoric acid prices, which in turn will drive up phosphate prices. Earnings forecasts and investment ratings. The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2009-2011 are estimated to be 0.15 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.45 yuan respectively. Based on the stock price of 6.84 yuan, the corresponding PE is 46 times, 22 times, and 15 times, raising the company's investment rating to “increase holdings.” Currently, the price of yellow phosphorus is about half of last year's high, and it is still relatively low. It is recommended to seize investment opportunities by combining its trend and other factors. Risk warning. The phosphorus chemical industry is closely linked to the macroeconomy, and the recovery process may fall short of expectations.
【天相投资】澄星股份:一体化和精细化助推未来盈利恢复
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