In the first three quarters of 2009, the company achieved operating income of 1.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, net profit of 62.69 million yuan, and earnings per share of 0.096 yuan. Judging from the results for this year's single quarter, we achieved operating income of 555, 665 million yuan, and 62 million yuan, and net profit of 19.29 million, 1351, and 29.89 million yuan respectively. The third quarter results were significantly better than the previous two quarters. Although the company's performance in the third quarter was better than the previous two quarters, compared to last year's performance, this year's performance still declined sharply, indicating that the industry's prosperity is still at a relative bottom, and more patience is needed to wait for the boom to pick up. Judging from the price trends of major products in the phosphorus chemical industry, the average prices of yellow phosphorus, phosphoric acid, and pentasodium were 12510, 4168, and 4,900 yuan/ton respectively in September. The trends were basically similar, and they were all in the bottom zone. It is unlikely that the price of yellow phosphorus will fall further in the future. First, the main production areas for yellow phosphorus will enter a dry period. Insufficient electricity supply will cause production plants with smaller production capacity to stop work, and large producers will also cut production. The reduction in production will form strong support for the rise in yellow phosphorus prices. Second, the “Yellow Phosphorus Industry Entry Conditions” will end disorderly competition in the yellow phosphorus industry and play a positive role in the healthy development of the phosphorus chemical industry. There was a wave of rise in the price of yellow phosphorus of about 20% in September, which is basically the same as our earlier judgment on the price trend of yellow phosphorus. However, it should be noted that this wave of increase is due to seasonal factors and is a short-term effect. According to the previous profit forecast, the company's earnings per share in 2009 were 0.13 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 55 times. It is predicted that with the recovery of the domestic economy, the prosperity of the phosphorus chemical industry will also gradually rise. It is estimated that earnings per share in 2010 will be 0.26 yuan, giving a price-earnings ratio of 30 times, corresponding to the company's target price of 7.8 yuan, unchanged from the previous period.
【华泰证券】澄星股份:三季度盈利能力有所增强
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