The 2010 performance was lower than expected: Chengxing released its 2010 annual report. For the whole year, the operating income was 2.5 billion yuan, down 1.80% from the same period last year, the total profit was 73 million yuan, down 10.58% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 48 million yuan, 19.18% less than the same period last year. The income per share was 0.074 yuan, which was lower than we expected. The company's distribution plan for 2010 is to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Positive: with the completion and commissioning of Yunnan mine, electricity and phosphorus integration base, the company has a complete industrial chain and scale advantage. The company improves the level of economic efficiency and the ability to resist market fluctuations by increasing the self-sufficiency rate of phosphate rock and reducing the production cost of yellow phosphorus.
The company continues to increase investment in science and technology, in high value-added fine phosphorus products continue to improve.
Negative: the homogenization of downstream products of phosphorus chemical industry is serious, and the competition is fierce, which makes the company's performance improvement under great pressure.
Development trend: the concentration of phosphorus chemical industry is increasing in the future, and the product structure is developing towards refinement and specialization. As a leader of phosphorus chemical industry with complete industry chain of mine, electricity and phosphorus, the company has strong core competitiveness and sustainable development ability.
Profit forecasts and investment advice:
We expect the company's 12-year performance forecast to be 0.20 yuan and 0.31 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 48.4 times and 31.2 times respectively. Maintain a "neutral" rating.
Risk:
1. The cost of production factors such as labor, raw materials, land and fuel power has increased significantly.
2. The market valuation center is downwards.