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【招商证券】浙江广厦:投资收益贡献09年大部分利润

招商證券 ·  Mar 3, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The annual report was in line with market expectations: the company achieved main revenue of 4.387 billion yuan, operating profit of 632 million yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 438 million yuan, an increase of 29%, 13%, and 14%, respectively; achieved earnings per share of 0.5 yuan, and performance in line with market expectations. During the reporting period, the company achieved sales of 3.02 billion yuan. Influenced by the regulation of the real estate market in 2008, the company's gross margin in 2009 was 23.5%, down 5.2 percentage points from 2008, and net interest rate was 10%, down 0.8 percentage points from 2008; investment income contributed most of the profit and fulfilled the stock reform commitment: During the reporting period, the company transferred shares held by Jinxin Trust Co., Ltd. and Tonghe Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. and achieved investment income of 225 million yuan. With this profit, the company fulfilled its performance promise of no less than 0.4 yuan per share during the stock reform; the company's project carry-over speed was lower than market expectations: the company's advance accounts appeared to be higher than the annual carry-over amount, mainly because the company's accounting policies were more strict and the carry-over was more cautious, so the carry-over speed also appeared to be slow; the company did not increase its project reserves in 2009: the company's current projects are mainly distributed in Xiaoshan, Yuhang, Nanjing, Xi'an, and Dongyang cities in Hangzhou, where the marketable area of equity is 2.163,500 square meters, of which the Tiandu project in Yuhang Possess and sell Over 50% of the area, there is a risk that the project will be too concentrated in one area. The company did not expand new projects in 2009; in the future, the company plans to choose opportunities to expand projects in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions; refinancing will be a catalyst for future stock prices: in 2009, the company proposed a financing plan to raise no more than 180 million shares and raise no more than 1.2 billion yuan in capital. If it can be successfully implemented in 10 years, the situation where the company's balance ratio is too high (77.2%) can be improved, and the momentum for the company's performance release will also be strengthened; performance forecasts and investment ratings: Based on the current total share capital of 872 million yuan, we predict that the company's EPS for 2010, 2011 and 2012 will be 0.43 yuan, 0.48 yuan and 0.58 yuan, respectively, and the company's RNAV will be 5.1 yuan. According to the company's 20 times PE valuation in 2010, we gave the company a target value of 8.6 yuan for the company's stock price, and for the first time, we gave the company a “prudent recommendation - A” investment rating for the company's stock.

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