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【华泰证券】浙江广厦:业绩释放有空间

華泰證券 ·  Jun 25, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Guangsha Holdings, the majority shareholder of the company, promised in the stock reform that the company's earnings per share in 2009 would not be less than 0.4 yuan. We believe that the company's commitment to achieve this performance is relatively certain, and that it can support stock prices relatively well in the short term, while performance growth after 2010 is beneficial to the long-term performance of stock prices. After deducting the projects owned by Chongqing Real Estate that are planned to be transferred, the advance accounts on the company's books at the end of 2008 were close to 3.3 billion yuan. Among them, projects such as Hangzhou Tiandu City Champs Garden, Mount Elysee Phase I, Hangzhou Nan'an Flower City, and Dongyang Bauhinia Manor will mostly be completed in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of this year, and revenue can be confirmed during the year. We expect this part of the confirmed project to bring in revenue of around 3 billion yuan. Furthermore, the company recently transferred shares held by Jinxin Trust and Tonghe Holdings separately, which will bring in 225 million yuan in transfer revenue, which can increase profits. There is a high possibility that the company's performance will continue to grow at a high rate after 2010. On the one hand, after successfully completing the three-year performance promise in the stock reform, the majority shareholders and the company are more motivated to release performance. On the other hand, the company has a large number of high-quality project reserves, good profit prospects, and the company is capable of achieving high performance growth. The second phase of No. 9 Changjiang Road will open in the third quarter and can be settled in 2010; the company's project reserves are obtained earlier, and the floor price is lower. If the settlement price of the project increases, the gross margin will increase significantly. The company's earnings per share are expected to be 0.45, 0.60, and 0.72 yuan respectively from 09 to 11, and the compound annual growth rate of net profit will reach 19.5%. In addition to the real estate development business, the company also has assets with value-added potential, such as the Hangzhou Overseas Chinese Hotel, Yiwu Blue Sky and Baiyun Convention Center, and the 5.3% equity of Zheshang Bank. We believe that the company's current total market value of less than 9 billion yuan does not fully reflect the company's actual project asset situation. The company's current stock price is equivalent to 22.4 times the predicted price-earnings ratio for 2009, which is lower than the industry average, so it maintains the “recommended” rating for the company, giving a six-month target price of 12 yuan, which is equivalent to predicting 26.7 times the price-earnings ratio for 09 and 20 times predicting the 10-year price-earnings ratio. The favorable factors that may drive the company's stock price in the future include the successful opening of Phase II of No. 9 Changjiang Road, and the company's further acquisition of villa-type land resources.

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