Incident: The company announced its 2014 three-quarter report, achieving sales revenue of 779 million yuan (+0.84%) and net profit of 219 million yuan (+97%) in a single quarter, equivalent to EPS of 0.10 yuan. Comment: The main source of revenue for the Central Plains Expressway is the toll business, which accounts for 94.72%. Since the Zhengzhou Yellow River Highway Bridge stopped charging tolls on October 8, 2012, the Zhengluo Expressway, the Luozhu Expressway, and the Zhengyao Expressway have become the three major revenue pillars of the Central Plains Expressway, accounting for 48.57%, 20.60%, and 16.08% of their main business revenue, respectively. Overall, monthly tolls on these three expressways are on the rise. Traffic on the three major motorways has been rising steadily. In January-September of this year, the average daily traffic on the Zhengluo Expressway, Luozhu Expressway, and Zhengyao Expressway was 48,811,36,894, and 12,041, with growth rates of 5%, 7%, and 17%, respectively. Judging from the traffic flow and revenue growth rate, the company's business has stopped declining and is slowly starting to recover. The change in depreciation policy led to a 76% increase in the company's net profit from January to September 2014. In January-September of this year, the average daily traffic on the Zhengluo Expressway, Luozhu Expressway, and Zhengyao Expressway was 48,811,36,894, and 12,041, with growth rates of 5%, 7%, and 17%, respectively. Judging from the traffic flow and revenue growth rate, the company's business has stopped declining and is slowly starting to recover. Every three years, the company will re-forecast the total traffic volume for the remaining period based on actual traffic volume, and adjust the depreciation amount (amortization amount) accrued per unit of traffic in subsequent years to ensure that the full value of road products is fully recovered during the operating period of the toll rights and that the relevant toll road and bridge concessions can be fully amortized after the amortization period expires. The company raised the total volume of future traffic (charging volume), which began implementation on October 1, 2013. As a result, operating costs were reduced by 158 million in the first three quarters, and operating profit increased dramatically. Maintaining the “Neutral-A” investment rating: EPS is expected to be 0.27,0.28,0.31 yuan in 2014-2016, and the corresponding PE is 11.3,10.7,10, respectively. Maintain a “Neutral-A” investment rating. Risk warning: The macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected, and the Luozhu high-speed expansion period has been extended.
【招商证券】中原高速:收入和车流触底恢复增长,公司毛利率大幅提升
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