The actual and forecast EPS0.36 of 2014-2016 after dilution of the company is 0.41,0.43 yuan. Comparable company's PE in 2015 is 19 times, which is 42 times the valuation of the CSRC industry in the last month. We estimate that the company's offering price is 51% lower than that of the CSRC industry (non-deduction).
It is suggested that the company quote 7.36 yuan, corresponding to the diluted PE of 22.96 times in 2014.
The estimated success rate is 0.56% online, 0.33% offline for public offering and social security, 0.25% for annuity and insurance, and 0.14% for others. It is estimated that 47.6 billion yuan will be frozen online and 13.4 billion yuan will be frozen offline, totaling 61 billion yuan.
Cost of capital: as the Spring Festival approaches, the overall capital area begins to tighten. It is expected that the frozen capital of this batch of new shares will reach 1.95 trillion yuan, and the seven-day repo rate is expected to reach 6.5%.
It is estimated that there are 5 limit boards, and the new annualized rate of return sold on the broken board is 41% online, 24% offline public offering and social security, 18% annuity and insurance, and 8% other 8%. It is estimated that the annualized rate of return of the broken board is the highest. In terms of absolute rate of return, online, public social security and annuity insurance can get absolute returns of 0.54%, 0.32%, 0.23% and 0.1%, respectively.
Analysis of the basic situation of the company
The company's main business is the R & D, production and sales of large infusion and injection puncture equipment, the main products are non-PVC soft bag infusion, plastic bottle infusion and other large infusion, as well as safety syringes, aseptic syringes and infusion devices.
Development space: 1) the market continues to grow, and the market capacity continues to improve. 2) the risks brought by the policy of centralized drug procurement. 3) the medical equipment industry in China is developing rapidly. 4) the medical device industry belongs to the sunrise industry in China, and the domestic use of medical devices is low, so there is room for increase. 5) the company is working with the hospital to establish a hemodialysis center, which is operated by the hospital and the company exclusively provides supplies for hemodialysis.
The company's competitive advantage: 1) the advantage of the whole industry chain of drug packaging materials. 2) scale advantage. 3) the advantage of independent innovation. 4) Regional market advantage.
Risk: the risk of centralized drug procurement policy, the risk of lower gross profit margin caused by the reduction of product prices, the risk of market competition, and the risk of antimicrobial treatment work.
