Main points of investment:
Regional high-end infusion leading enterprises. The company focuses on the R & D, production and sales of large infusion and injection puncture equipment, with large infusion revenue accounting for more than 80% of the company's main business, and its main high-end product-non-PVC soft bag annual production capacity of 140 million bags, in the forefront of the industry. The company's core coverage areas are Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong, and actively expand to Hubei, Shanghai, Chongqing and other provinces. Li Xianyu's family is the actual controller of the company. Shuang Pigeon Group (98.08% shareholding), which Li Xianyu absolutely controls, holds 36.20% of the shares after the offering, his wife Zhang Xueqin holds 12.21%, and the total number of shares held by Li Xianyu and her relatives exceeds 50%.
The gross profit margin of operating products is high, and the extension of the industrial chain creates a cost-leading strategy. In 2013, the gross profit margin of operating products was as high as 49.79%, far exceeding the industry average. Among them, the overall business gross profit margin of large infusion is 54.24%, which is an important part of the company's main gross profit. Different from the current situation that the company needs to import raw materials, the company actively extends to the upstream industrial chain, which not only ensures the supply of raw materials, but also takes into account quality advantages and cost control, and the gross profit margin is expected to continue to improve.
Analysis of the company's core competitive advantage: the whole industry chain of pharmaceutical packaging materials helps lead the cost and will stand out in the industry integration; the advantage of production scale is conducive to bidding and evaluation, which can reduce the allocation of fixed costs; the company pays attention to research and development. achievements have been made in drug packaging material research and development, drug R & D and production line technical transformation and process optimization, and its R & D advantages are expected to be transformed into product advantages. The regional market has obvious advantages, and overseas business provides new profit growth points.
Fund-raising projects: 239 million of the funds raised will be invested in non-PVC soft bag large infusion capacity expansion projects, 29 million in non-PVC membrane modified polypropylene example projects, 30 million in drug R & D center projects, and the remaining 80 million to supplement liquidity.
The risk reveals that the regional distribution of operating income is concentrated, and if the bidding in the core market is not up to expectations, it will have a greater impact on the performance; if the distribution of revenue products is relatively concentrated, the related industry policy changes may cause great fluctuations; the decline in drug bidding prices may reduce the company's profitability.
We estimate that the fully diluted EPS of the company in 2014, 2015 and 2016 will be 0.61,0.76 and 0.94 yuan. Combined with the growth of the company, we will give the company 22-27 times PE in 2014, and the reasonable price of the company will be 25.3-31.1yuan. If the issue price is on the low side, we suggest you pay attention to it.
Special note: the IPO pricing predicted in this report is not the price performance on the first day of listing, but a reasonable price range when the existing market environment remains basically unchanged.
