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高盛:中国房地产市场的长期增长趋势没有改变;续评雅居乐、恒大等买入

高盛 ·  May 19, 2010 17:10  · Researches

Goldman Sachs believes that the Chinese government may relax its austerity policies, which is expected to be an important factor in stimulating the recovery of the real estate market. Goldman Sachs said that although the possibility of the Chinese government easing its policy in the short term is low, they reiterated that in a bear market situation, real estate stock valuations are attractive because Goldman Sachs believes that despite China's austerity policies, the long-term growth trend of China's real estate market has not changed. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about this type of real estate developer: a wider range of projects, less business in regions with overheated real estate markets such as Shenzhen and Beijing, lower financing risk, and lower land storage costs (meaning that even in the worst case scenario that Goldman Sachs predicts, the risk of asset impairment for this type of developer is minimal). Goldman Sachs maintained its buying ratings for Agile Real Estate (3383.HK), Evergrande Real Estate (3333.HK), Baolong Real Estate (1238.HK), and Fancy Year Holdings (1777.HK); it raised the rating of China Resources Land (1109.HK) from selling to buying. Goldman Sachs added that if banks further tighten credit to developers, many developers with capital gaps may face refinancing problems. Goldman Sachs advises investors to avoid such second-hand housing brokerage companies because they are greatly affected by real estate turnover. Goldman Sachs maintained its selling ratings for Shenzhen Holdings (0604.HK) and Greentown China (3900.HK). Goldman Sachs downgraded the ratings of Shanghai Forte (2337.HK) from neutral to selling; downgraded the ratings of R&F Real Estate (2777.HK), Shimao Real Estate (0813.HK), Ocean Real Estate (3377.HK), and Renheng Land (Z25.SG) from buying to neutral.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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