Goldman Sachs published a research report. It is expected that international oil prices will further stabilize at 80 to 90 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter. It is estimated that they will rise by more than 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of the year. Due to tightening supply and demand fundamentals and the weakening of the US dollar, the bank is still optimistic about stocks benefiting from rising oil prices. China National Offshore Oil (00883-HK) and CITIC Resources (01205-HK) are preferred in Asia.

Goldman Sachs raised CNOOC's target price from 15.65 yuan to 16 yuan, maintaining the “buy” investment rating, indicating that its current valuation should only have a long-term oil price of about 76 US dollars (compared to that of its counterpart China Petroleum (00857-HK), which reached 91 US dollars); the bank gave CITIC Resources a target price of 2.5 yuan, all of which are investment ratings for purchases, indicating that its current valuation should only be about 75 US dollars for long-term oil prices.

According to the report, during a period of rising inflation, the overall profit margins of regulated refiners will be at a disadvantage, and high oil prices will further erode their profitability. It is estimated that Chinese refining companies will need a 3-4% increase in fuel prices to achieve their expected refining gross profit. However, Goldman Sachs does not rule out the possibility that fuel prices will be postponed until after the end of this farming season.