UBS published a report that predicts that Yurun will issue a profit in the interim, and that the business outlook for the second half of the year is uncertain. Coupled with frequent management changes, the profit forecast for 2012-14 was lowered. The target price was reduced by 35%, from 6.9 yuan to 4.5 yuan, and the rating remained “selling.” The report predicts that in the first half of this year, Yurun's net profit will fall 81% year on year to 234 million yuan, and the next quarter's business recovery will be slower than expected; the outlook for the second half of the year is low, while gross margin will continue to be under pressure. The bank expects sales in its upstream segment to increase by only 5% throughout the year, while the downstream segment will grow at zero. Furthermore, frequent changes in Yurun's management have also brought uncertainty to short-term business recovery and future strategic development. The bank lowered Yurun's profit forecast for 2012 by 25% and 28% for 2013-14.