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花旗:上海推调控楼市措施,严选优质内房股;评合生创展等买入

花旗集團 ·  Oct 8, 2010 19:12  · Researches

Citi published a research report on Shanghai's introduction of further measures to tighten the property market to cool down the property market, including a complete suspension of third home loans, an increase in land supply, and the commencement of real estate tax collection. It is expected that the news will weaken the performance of domestic housing stocks, and that the relevant measures will be extended to other cities in Shenzhen and Beijing. However, the bank believes that the measures will not significantly stifle demand for property purchases. As the market still focuses on anti-inflationary investment themes, it is expected to bring support to demand. Citigroup believes that since April of this year, domestic housing stocks have reflected the government's potential to push further tightening measures. It believes that the current price has reflected relevant factors, and that the market will continue to grow. However, the bank believes that the current price of domestic housing stocks is as high as 36% off the net asset value per share, and predicts a price-earnings ratio of 13.2 times, indicating that it already reflects negative factors. Citi suggests that in a regulated environment, investors should strictly select high-quality large-scale domestic housing stocks, including Shimao Real Estate (00813-HK) (target price 19.48 yuan), Agile Real Estate (003383-HK) (target price $12.54), and overseas China (00688-HK) (target price 19.01 yuan) (target price 19.01) yuan share name/investment rating/target price/NAV/stock price discount on NAV. Agile Real Estate (03383-HK) /purchase/12.54 yuan/17.83 yuan/ -48%. China Overseas (00688-HK) /Buy/19.01 yuan/21.13 yuan/ -20% China Resources Land (01109-HK) /Buy/17.17 yuan/22.19 yuan/ -27%. Fangxing Real Estate (00817-HK) /purchase/3.02 yuan/4.31 yuan/ -42%. Hengsheng Real Estate (00845-HK) /purchase/3.25 yuan/5.42 yuan/ -59%. Co-op Innovation Exhibition (00754-HK) /Buy/17.44 yuan/29.07 yuan/ -70%. Hejing Taifu (01813-HK) /buy/7.7 yuan/9.5 yuan/ -33%. Longhu Real Estate (00960-HK) /Buy/9.81 yuan/12.26 yuan/ -24%. New World China (00917-HK) /Buy/3.93 yuan/6.46 yuan/ -54%. Poly Hong Kong (00119-HK) /Buy/12.03 yuan/15.03 yuan/ -43%. Shimao Real Estate (00813-HK) /Buy/19.48 yuan/24.49 yuan/ -47%. Ocean Real Estate (00377-HK) /purchase/5.98 yuan/8.55 yuan/ -36%. SOHO China (00410-HK) /buy/5.45 yuan/7.79 yuan/ -24% Country Garden (02007-HK) /sale/1.8 yuan/3.01 yuan/ -16%. Greentown China (03900-HK) /selling/6.78 yuan/11.3 yuan/ -25%. R&F Real Estate (02777-HK) /selling/8.4 yuan/14.13 yuan/ -21%.

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