High temperatures have not reduced the popularity of tourism. Many figures on Dragon Boat Festival tourism have surpassed the same period in 2019

港股解碼 · Jun 25, 2023 20:47

来源：港股解码
作者：许螣垚

刚刚过去的端午节，全国多地经历了40°C左右的高温，然而骄阳似火也挡不住人们假期旅游的热情。多旅游平台数据显示，2023年端午或为2019年以来的最火假期，虽然只有短短三天，但国内机票、酒店等多项旅游产品预订量均超2019年同期。

端午旅游多项数据已超2019年同期

今年五一假期时都说出门旅游堪比春运，山东淄博烧烤更是被全网热议，而端午三天的旅游数据也同样火爆。

同程旅行发布的报告显示，2023年端午假期期间，同程旅行机票、酒店、景区门票及度假业务量均超过2019年同期。

携程数据显示，部分旅游业态的恢复进展已超过疫情前水平，其中国内门票业务等订单量较2019年同期已翻倍。去哪儿数据显示，2023年端午假期，国内热门城市机票预订量超过2019年同期二成，国内热门城市酒店预订量超过2019年同期1.6倍。

飞猪的数据则显示，在这个端午假期，包含国内机票、酒店、周边游、中长线游等在内的国内旅游服务延续了今年以来的复苏势头，商品订单量继续超越2019年同期；出境游稳健恢复，较同样长度的元旦假期，订单量已增长3.6倍以上。

从整体旅游消费的情况来看，美团、大众点评数据显示，端午假期前两天，全国生活服务消费额较上年同比增长60%，跨地市游客日均消费同比增长190%，北京、上海、深圳、广州、成都等城市消费规模位居全国前五。其中，住宿类和旅游景点类的消费规模增速较高，同比增长均接近200%。与酒店住宿相比，民宿住宿逐渐受到大众喜爱。途家民宿数据显示，截至6月24日，今年端午节期间民宿预订量同比2019年增长三成，每晚平均支付价格达到497元。

顺带一提，淄博烧烤的炉火依然滚烫。端午假期，携程平台上以淄博为目的地的高铁订单同比增长560%。

总体来看，2023年端午节假期，文化和旅游行业复苏势头强劲。万联证券表示，端午节释放新一轮旅游需求，出游预订火热开启，机票与火车票预定量同比去年增长显著，“北上避暑”旅行成为新热点。途家数据显示，北方海滨城市青岛、秦皇岛、威海跻身平台端午预定量前五。

需求有望持续释放

端午期间，经文化和旅游部数据中心综合测算，全国国内旅游出游1.06亿人次，同比增长32.3%，按可比口径恢复至2019年同期的112.8%；实现国内旅游收入373.10亿元，同比增长44.5%，按可比口径恢复至2019年同期的94.9%。

值得注意的是，按上述数据统计，虽然国内旅游出游人数已超2019年，但旅游收入仍未恢复2019年同期水平。随着各地中高考的陆续结束，暑期以家庭为单位的亲子游、毕业生出行等旅游需求或能继续支撑文旅产业的恢复。

据环球旅讯援引的携程《2023暑期预订趋势洞察报告》，从目前预订趋势看，今年暑期市场热度有望全面超过2019年同期，其中亲子游更是成为绝对主力。携程数据显示，截至6月14日，暑期亲子订单占比超过三成，亲子订单量同比去年超过7倍；在畅行无阻的暑假，整体跨省游订单超过七成，暑期长线游爆发可以预期。

川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长陈雳表示，随着我国消费市场整体实现初步复苏，线下消费活动恢复，居民旅游需求逐步释放，今年以来各个节假日旅游出游人数同比实现高增，旅游业实现较快复苏。

展望全年，我国经济韧性较强，居民消费潜力较大，随着我国经济较快复苏，叠加“稳增长，促消费”政策进一步发力释放消费潜力，旅游相关行业将进一步回暖，企业业绩得到修复。

根据中国旅游研究院发布的《中国旅游经济蓝皮书》预测，预计2023年全年国内旅游人数约45.5亿人次，同比增长73%，约恢复至2019年的76%；实现国内旅游收入约4万亿元，同比增长约89%，约恢复至2019年的71%。

机构建议关注下半年旅游板块机会

旅游需求的释放其实早已在节前机构数据中有所体现。端午节前飞猪发布了《端午假期出游风向标》，数据显示端午假期出游预订量较上周以接近翻倍的速度继续增长，其中跨省游订单占比已高达近90%，端午假期中长线游的预订高峰期比去年提前近10天，相较于元旦假期提前近一周。而这些具有良好征兆的数据也使得6月上半月旅游酒店板块整体上涨，旅游ETF(159766.SZ)6月01日-6月16日半个月左右整体上涨3.86%，但近期有所回调，板块内个股表现较好的有曲江文旅(600706.SH)、西安旅游(000610.SZ)、携程集团-S(09961.HK)等。

目前二季度尚未结束，我们从一季度数据看，文旅部披露，根据国内旅游抽样调查统计结果，2023年一季度，国内旅游总人次12.16亿，同比增长46.5%。其中，城镇居民国内旅游人次9.44亿，同比增长52%；农村居民国内旅游人次2.72亿，同比增长30.1%。

国内旅游收入（旅游总花费）1.3万亿元，增长69.5%。其中，城镇居民出游花费1.12万亿元，同比增长79.5%；农村居民出游花费0.18万亿元，同比增长26.1%。

平台数据也验证了2023年第一季度旅游业务呈现强劲复苏态势，据携程2023年一季报：

—国内的酒店预订量同比增长超过100%；

—本地游酒店预订量较2019年疫情前同比增长150%；

—出境酒店和机票预订量恢复到2019年疫情前同期水平的40%以上，尽管整体出境航空市场仅恢复到15%；

—公司国际OTA平台的机票预订量同比增长超过200%，较2019年疫情前同比增长超过100%。

据南京证券研报，今年春节以来出行链板块整体而言迎来快速复苏，2023Q1作为业绩验证的第一个窗口期，部分公司业绩取得亮眼表现甚至反超2019年同期，为接下来Q2以及暑期旺季Q3业绩恢复奠定较好基础。

东莞证券认为，站在当前时点来看，下半年暑期旺季和十一黄金周刺激下国内出游需求加速释放，旅游出行板块业绩有望得到释放，建议关注左侧布局机会，可关注业绩弹性较大的旅游景区、餐饮宴会、酒店等板块。

编辑/jayden

Source: Hong Kong Stock Decoded
Author: Xu Yuyao

During the Dragon Boat Festival just past, many parts of the country experienced high temperatures of around 40°C, yet the hot sun was not able to stop people's enthusiasm for holiday travel. According to data from multiple travel platforms, Dragon Boat Festival in 2023 may be the most popular holiday since 2019. Although it was only three days short, the number of reservations for many travel products such as domestic air tickets and hotels all exceeded the same period in 2019.

Many figures on Dragon Boat Festival tourism have surpassed the same period in 2019

During the May 1st holiday this year, they all said that going out on a trip was comparable to the Spring Festival travel season. The barbecue in Zibo, Shandong was even more hotly debated on the Internet, and the travel data for the three days of Dragon Boat Festival was also very popular.

According to a report released by Tongcheng Travel, during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in 2023, the volume of Tongcheng travel air tickets, hotel, scenic spot tickets, and vacation business all exceeded the same period in 2019.

According to Ctrip data, the recovery progress of some tourism industries has exceeded pre-epidemic levels, and the number of orders for ticket business etc. in China has doubled compared to the same period in 2019. Where to go data shows that during the 2023 Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the number of air ticket reservations to popular domestic cities exceeded 20% in the same period in 2019, and the number of hotel reservations in popular domestic cities exceeded 1.6 times the same period in 2019.

Flying Pig's data shows that during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel services, including domestic air tickets, hotels, surrounding tours, medium- and long-term trips, etc., have continued their recovery since this year, and product orders have continued to exceed the same period in 2019; outbound travel has steadily recovered, and the number of orders has increased more than 3.6 times over the same length of New Year's Day holiday.

Judging from the overall travel consumption situation, data from Meituan and Dazhong Dianping shows that in the first two days of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the country's consumption of lifestyle services increased 60% over the previous year, the average daily consumption of tourists from other cities increased 190% year on year, and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu ranked among the top five in the country. Among them, the growth rate of consumption in the lodging category and tourist attractions category was high, with year-on-year increases of close to 200%. Compared to hotel accommodations, homestay accommodations are gradually becoming popular. According to Tujia Bed and Breakfast data, as of June 24, the number of homestay bookings during the Dragon Boat Festival this year increased 30% compared to 2019, and the average price paid per night reached 497 yuan.

Incidentally, the barbecue fire in Zibo is still burning. High-speed rail orders to Zibo on the Ctrip platform increased 560% year-on-year during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday.

Overall, the cultural and tourism industry is recovering strongly during the 2023 Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Wanlian Securities said that the Dragon Boat Festival has unleashed a new round of travel demand, travel reservations are in full swing, air and train ticket bookings have increased significantly compared to last year, and “going north to escape the heat” trips have become a new hot topic. According to Tujia data, the northern coastal cities of Qingdao, Qinhuangdao, and Weihai are among the top five Dragon Boat Festival reservations on the platform.

Demand is expected to continue to be released

During the Dragon Boat Festival, according to comprehensive estimates from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center, the number of domestic tourists traveling across the country was 106 million, an increase of 32.3% over the previous year, and recovered to 112.8% in the same period in 2019 on a comparable scale; domestic tourism revenue reached 37.31 billion yuan, an increase of 44.5% over the previous year, and recovered to 94.9% in the same period in 2019 at a comparable pace.

It is worth noting that according to the above statistics, although the number of domestic travelers has exceeded 2019, tourism revenue has not yet recovered to the same period in 2019. As college entrance examinations end one after another in various places, summer tourism demand such as family trips and graduate trips may continue to support the recovery of the cultural tourism industry.

According to Ctrip's “2023 Summer Booking Trend Insight Report” quoted by Global Travel News, judging from current booking trends, the popularity of the summer market this year is expected to fully surpass the same period in 2019, with family travel becoming the absolute mainstay. According to Ctrip data, as of June 14, summer parent-child orders accounted for more than 30%, and the number of parent-child orders was more than seven times that of last year; during the unhindered summer vacation, overall cross-provincial travel orders exceeded 70%, and an outbreak of long-term summer travel can be anticipated.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the research institute, said that with the initial recovery of China's consumer market as a whole, the resumption of offline consumption activity, and the gradual release of residents' travel demand, the number of people traveling on various holidays has increased year-on-year since this year, and the tourism industry has recovered relatively quickly.

Looking ahead to the whole year, China's economy is resilient and consumer consumption potential is high. As China's economy recovers rapidly and the “steady growth and promotion of consumption” policies are further strengthened to unleash consumption potential, the tourism-related industry will pick up further and corporate performance will be repaired.

According to the forecast of the “Blue Book on China's Tourism Economy” published by the China Institute of Tourism Research, the number of domestic tourists is expected to be about 4.55 billion in 2023, an increase of 73% over the previous year, to about 76% in 2019; domestic tourism revenue will be about 4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 89% over the previous year, and a recovery to about 71% in 2019.

Agencies suggest focusing on opportunities in the travel sector in the second half of the year

The release of tourism demand is actually already reflected in pre-holiday agency data. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, Flying Pig released “Dragon Boat Festival Travel Trend Vane”. The data showed that the number of Dragon Boat Festival holiday travel bookings continued to increase at a rate of nearly double compared to last week. Among them, cross-provincial travel orders had reached nearly 90%. The peak booking period for medium- to long-term Dragon Boat Festival trips was nearly 10 days earlier than last year, nearly a week earlier than the New Year's Day holiday. However, these positive data also led to an overall rise in the tourist hotel sector in the first half of June. The travel ETF (159766.SZ) rose 3.86% overall in about half a month from June 01 to June 16, but there has been a recent correction. Individual stocks in the sector have performed well, such as Qujiang Cultural Tourism (600706.SH), Xi'an Travel (000610.SZ), and Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK).

The second quarter is not over yet. Judging from the data for the first quarter, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism revealed that according to the results of the domestic tourism sample survey, the total number of domestic tourists in the first quarter of 2023 was 1,216 million, an increase of 46.5% over the previous year. Among them, the number of domestic tourists from urban residents was 944 million, an increase of 52% over the previous year; the number of domestic tourists from rural residents was 272 million, an increase of 30.1% over the previous year.

Domestic tourism revenue (total travel expenses) was 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 69.5%. Among them, urban residents spent 1.12 trillion yuan on travel, an increase of 79.5% over the previous year; rural residents spent 0.18 trillion yuan on travel, an increase of 26.1% over the previous year.

Platform data also verifies that the travel business showed a strong recovery trend in the first quarter of 2023. According to Ctrip's 2023 Quarterly Report:

— Domestic hotel bookings increased by more than 100% year-on-year;

— The number of local hotel bookings increased 150% year-on-year compared to before the 2019 pandemic;

— The number of outbound hotel and air ticket bookings recovered to more than 40% of the same period before the pandemic in 2019, although the overall outbound aviation market only recovered to 15%;

— Ticket bookings on the company's international OTA platform increased by more than 200% year over year, up more than 100% from before the 2019 pandemic.

According to the Nanjing Securities Research Report, the travel chain sector as a whole has ushered in a rapid recovery since the Spring Festival this year. As the first window for performance verification, 2023Q1 was the first window for performance verification, and some companies' performance even surpassed the same period in 2019, laying a good foundation for the next Q2 and summer peak season Q3 performance recovery.

Dongguan Securities believes that from the current point of view, under the stimulus of the peak summer season in the second half of the year and the 11th Golden Week, domestic travel demand will be released at an accelerated pace, and the travel sector's performance is expected to be released. It is recommended to focus on left-side layout opportunities, and focus on sectors such as tourist attractions, restaurants, and hotels, which have high performance flexibility.

Editor/jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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高温不减旅游热，端午旅游多项数据已超2019年同期