Source: Hong Kong Stock Decoded
Author: Xu Yuyao

During the Dragon Boat Festival just past, many parts of the country experienced high temperatures of around 40°C, yet the hot sun was not able to stop people's enthusiasm for holiday travel. According to data from multiple travel platforms, Dragon Boat Festival in 2023 may be the most popular holiday since 2019. Although it was only three days short, the number of reservations for many travel products such as domestic air tickets and hotels all exceeded the same period in 2019.

Many figures on Dragon Boat Festival tourism have surpassed the same period in 2019

During the May 1st holiday this year, they all said that going out on a trip was comparable to the Spring Festival travel season. The barbecue in Zibo, Shandong was even more hotly debated on the Internet, and the travel data for the three days of Dragon Boat Festival was also very popular.

According to a report released by Tongcheng Travel, during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in 2023, the volume of Tongcheng travel air tickets, hotel, scenic spot tickets, and vacation business all exceeded the same period in 2019.

According to Ctrip data, the recovery progress of some tourism industries has exceeded pre-epidemic levels, and the number of orders for ticket business etc. in China has doubled compared to the same period in 2019. Where to go data shows that during the 2023 Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the number of air ticket reservations to popular domestic cities exceeded 20% in the same period in 2019, and the number of hotel reservations in popular domestic cities exceeded 1.6 times the same period in 2019.

Flying Pig's data shows that during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel services, including domestic air tickets, hotels, surrounding tours, medium- and long-term trips, etc., have continued their recovery since this year, and product orders have continued to exceed the same period in 2019; outbound travel has steadily recovered, and the number of orders has increased more than 3.6 times over the same length of New Year's Day holiday.

Judging from the overall travel consumption situation, data from Meituan and Dazhong Dianping shows that in the first two days of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the country's consumption of lifestyle services increased 60% over the previous year, the average daily consumption of tourists from other cities increased 190% year on year, and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu ranked among the top five in the country. Among them, the growth rate of consumption in the lodging category and tourist attractions category was high, with year-on-year increases of close to 200%. Compared to hotel accommodations, homestay accommodations are gradually becoming popular. According to Tujia Bed and Breakfast data, as of June 24, the number of homestay bookings during the Dragon Boat Festival this year increased 30% compared to 2019, and the average price paid per night reached 497 yuan.

Incidentally, the barbecue fire in Zibo is still burning. High-speed rail orders to Zibo on the Ctrip platform increased 560% year-on-year during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday.

Overall, the cultural and tourism industry is recovering strongly during the 2023 Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Wanlian Securities said that the Dragon Boat Festival has unleashed a new round of travel demand, travel reservations are in full swing, air and train ticket bookings have increased significantly compared to last year, and “going north to escape the heat” trips have become a new hot topic. According to Tujia data, the northern coastal cities of Qingdao, Qinhuangdao, and Weihai are among the top five Dragon Boat Festival reservations on the platform.

Demand is expected to continue to be released

During the Dragon Boat Festival, according to comprehensive estimates from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center, the number of domestic tourists traveling across the country was 106 million, an increase of 32.3% over the previous year, and recovered to 112.8% in the same period in 2019 on a comparable scale; domestic tourism revenue reached 37.31 billion yuan, an increase of 44.5% over the previous year, and recovered to 94.9% in the same period in 2019 at a comparable pace.

It is worth noting that according to the above statistics, although the number of domestic travelers has exceeded 2019, tourism revenue has not yet recovered to the same period in 2019. As college entrance examinations end one after another in various places, summer tourism demand such as family trips and graduate trips may continue to support the recovery of the cultural tourism industry.

According to Ctrip's “2023 Summer Booking Trend Insight Report” quoted by Global Travel News, judging from current booking trends, the popularity of the summer market this year is expected to fully surpass the same period in 2019, with family travel becoming the absolute mainstay. According to Ctrip data, as of June 14, summer parent-child orders accounted for more than 30%, and the number of parent-child orders was more than seven times that of last year; during the unhindered summer vacation, overall cross-provincial travel orders exceeded 70%, and an outbreak of long-term summer travel can be anticipated.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the research institute, said that with the initial recovery of China's consumer market as a whole, the resumption of offline consumption activity, and the gradual release of residents' travel demand, the number of people traveling on various holidays has increased year-on-year since this year, and the tourism industry has recovered relatively quickly.

Looking ahead to the whole year, China's economy is resilient and consumer consumption potential is high. As China's economy recovers rapidly and the “steady growth and promotion of consumption” policies are further strengthened to unleash consumption potential, the tourism-related industry will pick up further and corporate performance will be repaired.

According to the forecast of the “Blue Book on China's Tourism Economy” published by the China Institute of Tourism Research, the number of domestic tourists is expected to be about 4.55 billion in 2023, an increase of 73% over the previous year, to about 76% in 2019; domestic tourism revenue will be about 4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 89% over the previous year, and a recovery to about 71% in 2019.

Agencies suggest focusing on opportunities in the travel sector in the second half of the year

The release of tourism demand is actually already reflected in pre-holiday agency data. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, Flying Pig released “Dragon Boat Festival Travel Trend Vane”. The data showed that the number of Dragon Boat Festival holiday travel bookings continued to increase at a rate of nearly double compared to last week. Among them, cross-provincial travel orders had reached nearly 90%. The peak booking period for medium- to long-term Dragon Boat Festival trips was nearly 10 days earlier than last year, nearly a week earlier than the New Year's Day holiday. However, these positive data also led to an overall rise in the tourist hotel sector in the first half of June. The travel ETF (159766.SZ) rose 3.86% overall in about half a month from June 01 to June 16, but there has been a recent correction. Individual stocks in the sector have performed well, such as Qujiang Cultural Tourism (600706.SH), Xi'an Travel (000610.SZ), and Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK).

The second quarter is not over yet. Judging from the data for the first quarter, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism revealed that according to the results of the domestic tourism sample survey, the total number of domestic tourists in the first quarter of 2023 was 1,216 million, an increase of 46.5% over the previous year. Among them, the number of domestic tourists from urban residents was 944 million, an increase of 52% over the previous year; the number of domestic tourists from rural residents was 272 million, an increase of 30.1% over the previous year.

Domestic tourism revenue (total travel expenses) was 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 69.5%. Among them, urban residents spent 1.12 trillion yuan on travel, an increase of 79.5% over the previous year; rural residents spent 0.18 trillion yuan on travel, an increase of 26.1% over the previous year.

Platform data also verifies that the travel business showed a strong recovery trend in the first quarter of 2023. According to Ctrip's 2023 Quarterly Report:

— Domestic hotel bookings increased by more than 100% year-on-year;

— The number of local hotel bookings increased 150% year-on-year compared to before the 2019 pandemic;

— The number of outbound hotel and air ticket bookings recovered to more than 40% of the same period before the pandemic in 2019, although the overall outbound aviation market only recovered to 15%;

— Ticket bookings on the company's international OTA platform increased by more than 200% year over year, up more than 100% from before the 2019 pandemic.

According to the Nanjing Securities Research Report, the travel chain sector as a whole has ushered in a rapid recovery since the Spring Festival this year. As the first window for performance verification, 2023Q1 was the first window for performance verification, and some companies' performance even surpassed the same period in 2019, laying a good foundation for the next Q2 and summer peak season Q3 performance recovery.

Dongguan Securities believes that from the current point of view, under the stimulus of the peak summer season in the second half of the year and the 11th Golden Week, domestic travel demand will be released at an accelerated pace, and the travel sector's performance is expected to be released. It is recommended to focus on left-side layout opportunities, and focus on sectors such as tourist attractions, restaurants, and hotels, which have high performance flexibility.

Editor/jayden