Event: according to the Q1 report of 2022 and 2023, the company achieved a total operating income of 2.203 billion yuan in 2022, a decrease of 16.72% over the same period last year, and a net loss of 43 million yuan, a decrease of 131.26% over the same period last year. Among them, the single Q4 company realized a total operating income of 614 million yuan and a net loss of 54 million yuan. In 2023, Q1 Company realized operating income of 395 million yuan, an increase of 11.57% over the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 15 million yuan.
Under pressure from the industry, the company takes the initiative to optimize the customer structure. In terms of products, the company achieved operating income of 1.552 billion yuan for steel safety doors in 22 years, down 16.2% from the same period last year, 396 million yuan for other doors, down 26.3% from the same period last year, and 151 million yuan for smart locks, down 6.5% from the same period last year. The main steel safety door revenue of the company has declined significantly, and it is expected that due to the decline in real estate, a number of real estate companies have capital risks, and the company has taken the initiative to optimize the structure of engineering customers and further shrink the scale of cooperation with some risk customers.
The multiple sales channel system covers the national network, and the Q1 project channel is expected to grow strongly. In terms of sales channels, the company's e-commerce channels achieved business income of 53 million yuan in 22 years, an increase of 41.7% over the same period last year; business income of engineering channels reached 923 million yuan, down 21.9% from the same period last year; and operating income of distribution channels reached 1.123 billion yuan, down 15.6% from the same period last year. ToC channel revenue was 4.58 yuan, down 20.9% Tob channel revenue was 666 million yuan, down 11.5%. Taking into account the impact of the 22Q4 epidemic on retail sales orders at the front end, the proportion of Q1 engineering business is expected to increase, driving the company's revenue to achieve double-digit growth.
Capacity release profitability is expected to gradually recover, customer structure optimization cash flow significantly improved. The company's 2022 gross profit margin showed a quarter-by-quarter improvement trend, 22Q4 gross profit margin increased by 11% to 28% the gross profit margin of 23Q1 increased year-on-year. 22Q4 suffered a slight loss, related to its asset and credit impairment losses, the profit margin after the reduction is expected to remain high in single digits, and the 23Q1 return net interest rate is 3.9%, which is expected to improve as the company's production capacity climbs. In addition, with the continuous optimization of the company's customer structure, cash flow indicators have been improved and the quality of earnings has been improved.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we expect the company to achieve a return net profit of 2.12 USD 2.99 / 391 million in 23-25, with a year-on-year turnround / + 41% Compact 31% 25-day share price corresponding to a 23-year PE of 18.5X, maintaining a "highly recommended" investment rating.
Risk hint: real estate fluctuation risk, market competition aggravates risk, production capacity climbing is less than expected risk.