Source: Gelonghui
Today, the gold sectors of Hong Kong and A are collectively active. As of press release, Hong Kong stocks, Zhaojin Mining and Lingbao Gold, rose more than 3%, Shandong Gold rose 2.6%, and China Gold International and Tongguan Gold rose more than 1%.
In the A-share market, Shandong Gold rose 3.24%, Yintai Gold, Hunan Gold, and CICC Gold rose more than 2%, and Sichuan Gold rose 1%.
According to the news, the US announced on Thursday that the number of jobless claims at the beginning of last week was 261,000, far exceeding expectations of 235,000, consolidating expectations that the Federal Reserve will suspend the interest rate hike cycle next week. The US dollar index recorded its biggest one-day decline in nearly three months and hit a new low of more than two weeks, providing momentum for the rise in gold prices.
Overnight gold futures closed up more than 1%
According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor, in the week ending June 3, the number of initial jobless claims in the US rose to 261,000, reaching the highest level since October 2021, indicating that the labor market is slowing down as the risk of economic recession increases.
Despite a surge in the number of applicants, initial jobless claims remained at a level consistent with tight labor markets. According to data released last week, the US added 339,000 jobs in May. Although the unemployment rate rose to a seven-month high of 3.7% from 3.4% in April, it is still low by historical standards. The surge in initial jobless claims is a sign of further cracks in the labor market.
Some analysts pointed out, “This data shows that the US economy is weakening further. ThisGood news for goldThis will allow the Federal Reserve to remain on hold. If inflation weakens further, if the Federal Reserve stays on hold and does not send a strong signal that it will raise interest rates at the next meeting, then gold has reason to rise.”
After the data was released, the US dollar index plummeted 0.78%, increasing the appeal of gold denominated in US dollars. The performance of overnight spot gold was also impressive, reversing all of Wednesday's decline. It once hit the 1970 mark during the intraday period and closed near 1965 US dollars, up 25.53 US dollars, or 1.32%.
Just next week, the Federal Reserve will hold its next policy meeting. At that time, the Federal Reserve will have to decide on the next interest rate move. Currently, the market generally expects the Fed not to choose to raise interest rates.
Some analysts pointed out that since this year, the price of gold has continued to trade at such a high level. Although it may be about 100 US dollars lower than the peak in early May, the price of gold is still in a range that has rarely appeared in the long trading history of gold. This fact reflects the weak state of market confidence.
Now, the focus of the global market is turning to the CPI data to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics next Tuesday. This is the last time the Federal Reserve will review the current US inflation situation before the interest rate meeting. If the final data falls back, then the price of spot gold may rise as the need for the Fed to raise interest rates falls accordingly.
What is the future trend of gold prices?
According to the latest data from the central bank, China's gold reserves were 67.27 million ounces at the end of May and 66.76 million ounces at the end of April, increasing gold reserves for the 7th month in a row.
China's central bank chose to increase its gold holdings,On the one handBecause they are concerned about the safety of the US dollar and seek diversification of foreign exchange reserves, the credit currency risk brought about by the US dollar's excessive share of foreign exchange reserves has also been reduced,On the other hand,This also reduced the impact of the Fed's monetary policy fluctuations on China's economic fundamentals and financial markets, and helped maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.
Not only in China, central banks around the world have also shown strong willingness to increase the allocation of gold. According to the World Gold Council report, central banks around the world set a new historical record with a net purchase volume of 1,136 tons of gold in 2022. In the first two months of 2023, central banks around the world have reported net gold purchases of 125 tons. This is the strongest start of central bank gold purchases since 2010.
Regarding the future trend of gold prices, the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that, firstly, the global trend of “going to the dollar” is unspeakably over, and the central bank's increase in gold holdings may continue to strengthen in the future. It is expected that the central bank's increase in holdings is expected to drive up the gold price center; secondly, the medium- to long-term decline in US inflation is clear, and the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to easing. When real interest rates in the US fall back, the gold allocation value is expected to become more apparent; finally, the fourth quarter is usually the season where domestic demand for gold has not yet been the strongest, and it is expected that strong demand may also drive up gold prices. Top.
Pacific Securities said that gold experienced two bull markets in the 70s of the last century and the first ten years of this century, with increases of 23 times and 7 times, respectively. Currently, gold is in the third round of a bull market. It is expected that the price of gold will reach 2,400 US dollars/ounce to 2,600 US dollars/ounce within two years.
Dongguan Securities also pointed out that although the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have been adjusted repeatedly, supported by factors such as expectations to stop raising interest rates, concerns about a recession in the US economy, and short-term sudden risk events, the overall recovery of gold is limited. Before the Fed officially stops raising interest rates, the gold sector still has allocation value.
Editor/Somer