The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shanghai Securities released a research report stating that maintaining GCL Technology's (03800) “buy” rating, the net profit of GCL Technology (03800) is expected to be 121.74, 152.54, and 19.055 billion yuan respectively in 2023-25, compared to -26%, +25%, and +31% compared with the same period last year. According to the company's official account, on May 25, GCL Technology announced at the SNEC exhibition site that the new “fluidized bed granular silicon” national standard led by the company will be released in June this year. The content will further highlight the core advantages of granulated silicon in terms of quality.

The report's main points are as follows:

The quality of granulated silicon has improved rapidly, patent reserves have laid the foundation for quality improvement, and a high proportion of downstream N-type applications can be expected.

Since 2022, the quality of the company's granulated silicon has improved rapidly. The proportion of products with a total metal content of granulated silicon below 3ppBW increased from 18.3% in 202Q1 to 80.3% in 2022Q4 and 96% in 2023Q1. As of March 2023, the proportion of products with a total metal content of less than 1 ppbw was over 75%. Within 3 months, the share of metal products <1ppbw in a single week increased 13%. The powder content of the company's products was also reduced from 8 mg/g to 1 mg/g in 2022. At the same time, the company also has patent reserves for improving product quality. The bank believes that from 2022 to now, the company will use actual data to prove that the quality improvement path for granulated silicon products is effective, and the impurity content is expected to be further drastically reduced in the future. Since N-type silicon wafers require higher impurity content in silicon materials, the bank believes that in the future, as quality improves, granular silicon can be expected to be applied at a high rate in N-type crystallization.

The cost advantage of granulated silicon is gradually showing, and the bank expects future costs to drop by about 10%-20%.

According to estimates, the bank expects the cost in the Leshan region to achieve production costs of less than 40 yuan/kg after full delivery. Compared with the 40.15 yuan/kg in the Xuzhou region disclosed in the first quarter, it is expected to decrease by 10%-20%. The bank believes that there will be room for further decline in granular silicon production costs as production capacity at various bases gradually climbs, production capacity utilization rates are further increased, and cost control capabilities increase.