Although Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) and Lilly (LLY.US) may dominate the diet drug market for the next ten years, rivals such as Amgen (AMGN.US) and Pfizer (PFE.US) may soon catch up. The Zhitong Finance App learned that the investment research agency Morningstar (Morningstar) believes that this situation has not yet been reflected in stock prices.
Morningstar believes Novo Nordisk and Lilly are highly valued, and investors have digested the huge market opportunities for weight loss drugs, but “there is little room left for new entrants.” However, the agency also added: “We expect that starting in 2026, new treatments introduced by companies including Amgen and Pfizer may grow to about a quarter of the market share by 2032.”
Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Lilly's Mounjaro are two of the most popular weight loss drugs currently on the market. Weight loss drugs from Amgen and Pfizer are also being developed. Earlier this year, Amgen plans to begin phase II trials of its slimming drug AMG-133; Pfizer's slimming drug danuglipron is currently undergoing phase II trials for obesity and diabetes. These drugs are all GLP-1R drugs.
Increased competition in the field of weight loss drugs could lead to lower prices, which could eventually stimulate demand, especially if such drugs are covered by insurance. Morningstar estimates that by 2024, the global average price of GLP-1R drugs will climb to a high of around 5,400 US dollars, but as more products enter the market, the price will drop to 2,800 US dollars by 2032.
All in all, Morningstar expects the potential size of the weight loss drug market to be about 60 billion US dollars by 2032, when about 21 million people around the world will take GLP-1R drugs. The agency expects that by 2032, Lilly will replace Novo Nordisk as the market leader and occupy about 40% of the market share, which will benefit from Mounjaro and two other drugs being developed; Novo Nordisk will gain another 36% market share through sales of Wegoby and related Semaglutide products; Amgen is expected to gain 4% of the market share, Pfizer will gain 3% of the market share, and the remaining 17% will be divided among other competitors.
Morningstar also said that the comprehensive market for GLP-1R drugs used to treat obesity and diabetes will be larger. The agency estimates that by 2030, sales of such drugs will reach at least 90 billion US dollars; by 2032, sales of such drugs are expected to reach 45 billion US dollars, and Pfizer and Amgen are expected to reach 4 billion US dollars and 3 billion US dollars respectively. However, the rules of the game may change significantly by 2032, when Novo Nordisk will lose Semaglutide's patent protection, which will open the door to competition for cheaper generic drugs.