Key points of investment
Mining equipment+logistics equipment dual-drive, 2017-2022 performance achieved rapid growth. CAGR reached 49%. Domestic mining equipment and logistics equipment industry leaders: the company is mainly dual-driven by coal mining machinery and port machinery.
It is a leading enterprise in the domestic TBM industry, and has occupied a market advantage in the mobile port machinery field for many years in a row.
The company achieved rapid growth in 2017-2022. The company's total revenue CAGR was 44.3%, net profit CAGR was 49%, net interest rate increased from 9.2% to 10.7%, and remained above 10% during the period. ROE increased steadily from 3.6% to 16.6%, with a central position of 10.6%. In 2022, the company's total operating revenue and net profit of the parent were 15.64 billion yuan and 1.66 billion yuan respectively, up 52.2% and 32.2% year-on-year, both of which achieved significant growth. The progress in the internationalization strategy was outstanding. Overseas sales revenue reached 4.22 billion yuan, an increase of 101.5% over the previous year.
Mining equipment: TBM industry leader, hydraulic bracket market share increased, wide-body vehicles rapidly released the coal mining machinery industry eliminated small production capacity and increased production capacity due to the renewal of old equipment. Renewal demand is expected to remain high. Safety and economy drive long-term demand for intelligent transformation of coal machinery, and the coal mining machinery industry will continue to boom in 2023-2025. The company is a leader in the TBM industry. The market share of hydraulic brackets has increased, and wide-body mining vehicles have quickly opened up the international market. In 2022, energy equipment achieved sales revenue of 10.94 billion yuan, exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, an increase of 58.7% over the previous year, accounting for 70% of revenue revenue. The 2017-2022 energy equipment revenue CAGR was 55.5%. With the completion of coal mining machinery and the advancement of intelligence, the company's competitiveness is expected to gradually increase.
Logistics equipment: Driven by large port machinery+small port machinery, digital intelligence, electrification and internationalization consolidate the industry position. In 2017-2022, the container throughput of major ports in the country was 6% CAGR, inland port cargo throughput (10,000 tons) CAGR 8%, coastal port cargo throughput (10,000 tons) CAGR 4%, port cargo throughput grew steadily. The company's share of the frontal crane/forklift industry remained high. In 2017-2022, the company's port machinery revenue increased from 1.28 billion yuan to 4.59 billion yuan. AGR At 29%, as the future trend of digital intelligence, electrification and internationalization of port machinery becomes more and more obvious, the company's layout is leading in the industry and has achieved impressive results. In the future, the company is expected to be strong in the field of small port machinery, and the market share of large ports is expected to gradually increase.
Emerging sectors: Robotics, lithium batteries, and oil and clothing are being merged one after another. The new business is poised to be developed. The company is poised to merge into the Group's robot business in 2021 to expand the intelligent production line and AGV business. It merged into the group's technical equipment company at the end of 2022, entered the new energy equipment market such as lithium batteries, and merged into the Group's petroleum equipment assets in 2023. Backed by Sany Group to further improve its energy equipment layout, new businesses are continuously added to provide impetus for future growth. As the Group continues to increase its support for Sany International, the emerging sector is expected to be developed. Sustained high growth.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Net profit attributable to the mother in 2023-2025 is estimated to be 2.18 billion, 2.97 billion yuan, 3.80 billion yuan, an increase of 31%, 36%, and 28% over the previous year. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 14 times, 11 times, and 8 times. Give the purchase a rating.
Risk warning: The process of new, updated and intelligent coal equipment fell short of expectations, exports of wide-body vehicles fell short of expectations; demand for port machinery was weak and the competitive environment deteriorated; there was a risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.