The Zhitong Finance App learned that on June 1, Cui Dongshu published an article stating that in April 2023, world automobile sales reached 6.64 million units, an increase of 22% over the previous year. World automobile sales in January-April 2023 reached 27.09 million units, an increase of 8% over the previous year, but the gap between the high level of recent years reached 14%, which is quite large. Due to improved chip supply, the operation of the global automobile industry has improved markedly, leading to an improvement in sales of international car companies. The cumulative share of Chinese car companies in the world will reach 30% in 2023.
From a global perspective, the recovery of the Chinese automobile market was slow in April, accounting for 30% of the world's automobile share. The recovery of Chinese car companies such as BYD (002594.SZ) and SAIC Motor Group (600104.SH) was the most prominent, and the performance of the Asian Group, represented by Toyota and Suzuki-Kia, improved. The international chip shortage in the past two years has had little impact on the Chinese auto market. Instead, it has boosted the strong performance of China's automobile exports, seized the huge gap between supply and demand in the international market, and obtained rare development opportunities. As a highly monopolized industry such as automotive chips, the current supply-side tightening will bring major opportunities to the rise of China's supply chain, and the development of electrification will also cause European car companies to rapidly decline.
World automobile sales trends over the years
World automobile sales in April 2023 reached 6.64 million units, an increase of 22% over the previous year, and a decrease of 13% from 7.66 million units in April 2018, which is in the middle to low level of previous years.
After a continuous decline in 2018-2020, the world's major countries sold 81.35 million units of automobiles in 2021, an increase of 4% over the previous year, and the post-pandemic recovery performance was good. However, in 2022, there were only 80.18 million units, down 1% from the previous year, and only slightly higher than sales in 2020.
World automobile sales in January-April 2023 reached 27.09 million units, an increase of 8% over the previous year, but the gap between the high level of recent years reached 14%, which is quite large.
The trend from January to April 2023 was significantly lower than the sales level of the previous calendar year in normal years, and April was only better than the level of 2020 and 2022. This was mainly due to factors such as poor consumption, which led to low sales. The Chinese auto market was not strong in April, and the global auto market did not pick up much in April.
World automobile sales trends over the years
The world's automobile sales in the table above are mainly sales in 70 countries. These 70 core countries had around 90 million units in 2019. This is also a basic way to track monthly sales.
There are 100 other countries that can only track annual sales, totaling around 3 million units in 2022. Compared to the 70 major countries with 80 million units, the total number of these smaller countries is around 3%, which has little impact.
Judging from the world sales volume represented by major countries, world automobile sales fell 1% in 2018. It fell into negative annual growth for the first time since 2010. Automobile sales in 2019 were 89.81 million units, down 4% from the previous year, slightly different from the decline in 2008; sales in 2020 fell 13%; 2021 rebounded 4% year on year; world sales fell 1% in 2022, and the performance of the 8% world sales growth rate in 2023 was good. Among them, China increased 7% and the rest of the world increased 7%. This is mainly due to the temporary adjustment of China's auto market this year.
China will maintain its leading position in sales in 2023
The influence of the Chinese automobile market on the global automobile market is enormous. In 2016-2018, Chinese automobiles accounted for about 30% of the world, and fell to 29% in 2019, but they still have an absolute advantage. The country's share rebounded to 32% in 2020-2021. China's share rose to 33% in 2022.
China's share fell to 30% in 2023. This is a normal reflection of the Chinese market's Spring Festival factors and the withdrawal of preferential car purchase tax policies. Market shares in North America and Europe have risen across the board, and the market trend in the southern hemisphere is weak.
China's global market share trend
In 2023, the world market was further divided, and China's share gradually picked up. China controlled the epidemic better in 2022, so the market is strong, and China's share of the world is high. The impact of chips and the like on the Chinese auto market is also not obvious. Replenishment of goods after being out of stock drives the Chinese auto market strongly.
However, with the withdrawal of preferential policies, automobile sales in China plummeted, and the share fell to 29% in January; recovered to a better level of 32% in February; the share fell to 30% in March, and rebounded to 32% in April.
Characteristics of monthly automobile sales trends in various countries
Judging from the monthly sales growth trend in countries around the world, the trend is basically balanced between months. However, due to seasonal factors, annual factors, etc., there is still a big contrast in the trends of various countries.
Since the Chinese auto market is still popular, it showed a relatively strong situation at the beginning and end of the year, and the summer trend was relatively weak, while the US car market showed relatively weak characteristics at the beginning of the year and was relatively stable in the middle of the year, but there was no characteristic of a spring rise in the Chinese auto market this year, so there was not much increase in share.
Since car markets such as Europe and the US are all facing a worsening recession, the car market is relatively sluggish. Other car markets in the world were affected by the Fed's interest rate hike and were sluggish in 2023, and the Chinese auto market is still relatively good.
World share performance of international groups
Overseas market performance of Chinese autonomous car companies in 2023
In 2023, Chinese autonomous car companies performed very well in Europe. In particular, European and American car companies withdrew from the Russian market due to political reasons. Chinese car companies enjoyed a large shrinking market in Russia, and their overall performance was very good. The markets of developed countries such as Australia are occupied by SAIC Motor, Great Wall, etc. Geely Automobile (00175), FAW, and Dongfeng performed well in the Southern Hemisphere and European markets.
Currently, SAIC Motor's MG brand is still strong in the European market. The MG brand has successfully operated internationally and achieved excellent sales results. The new powers also made breakthroughs in Norway and the Netherlands.