Source: Gelonghui

This past weekend, the US White House and Republican negotiators reached a principle agreement on raising the federal government debt ceiling, breaking the deadlock that has continued between the two parties for several months. The agreement includes historic spending cuts and labor-market reforms; at the same time, it will control excessive government expansion and intervention, with no additional tax revenue, and no new government projects.

Driven by this favorable trend, international oil prices rose. Among them, futures for major US oil contracts rose 1.57%, and futures for major oil contracts rose 1.81%. On the domestic side,Hong Kong stocks and oil stocks have collectively risen.CNPC rose 3.45%, Sinopec rose 3.19%, and CNOOC rose 0.16%. Since the beginning of the year, the stock price of CNPC has risen by more than 50%, Sinopec by more than 37%, and CNOOC by more than 25%.

Among A-shares, CNPC rose more than 7%, Sinopec rose 4.53%, and Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Shanghai Petrochemical rose one after another.

Orient Securities pointed out that starting in 2022, against the backdrop of large fluctuations in international oil prices and declining refining sentiment, CNPC and Sinopec took advantage of integration advantages and upstream and downstream collaboration in the industrial chain, and ROE also surpassed private refining and refining.

From the perspective of dividends, Three Barrels of Oil has always focused on shareholder returns. The dividend payment ratio after 2018 was basically above 50%, and the dividend ratio was promised in the company's articles of association. The dividend ratio of three barrels of A-share oil is higher than 5%, and the dividend ratio of three barrels of H-share oil is higher than 8%. The recently proposed action to create a world-class model enterprise is expected to open up a new development situation for China Special Evaluation. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities for petroleum and petrochemical central enterprises in the context of China Special Evaluation.

The market is tight on “OPEC+”

According to the plan, “OPEC+” will hold a face-to-face meeting in Vienna from June 3 to 4. Among them, OPEC will meet on June 3, followed by an “OPEC+” meeting on June 4, and the “OPEC+” Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee will also meet on June 4.

At the conference, countries will discuss crude oil production policies for the second half of the year, and the market is generally concerned about whether further production cuts will be announced. However, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak recently, after “OPEC+” made a decision to cut production last month, it is unlikely that this meeting will adopt new measures.

The current task of OPEC and its allies is to monitor the market and respond quickly. Its mission is not to raise prices, but to balance the market to ensure the interests of producers and consumers.

Novak expects the price of Brent crude oil to be slightly higher than $80 per barrel by the end of 2023, and reiterated that the goal of “OPEC+” is not to push oil prices higher, but to balance prices to ensure the interests of producers and consumers.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's energy minister Abdul Aziz bin Salman shouted during a forum,Oil shorters should be “careful”They will continue to feel pain. The market expects OPEC+ to consider further production cuts at the June 4 meeting.

Currently, the June meeting is only a few days away, and Saudi Arabia's warning has also ignited expectations from the outside world for OPEC+ production cuts to stabilize oil prices.

The eleventh round of domestic oil price adjustments starts tomorrow night

In terms of domestic oil prices, the eleventh round of oil price adjustments will begin at 24:00 on May 30 (Tuesday).

According to industry experts analyzing international oil prices that have been rising for two consecutive weeks, it is estimated that domestic oil prices may rise by 90 yuan/ton, exceeding the “red line” of domestic oil price increases. National diesel and gasoline prices will rise by about 0.07 yuan/liter, and oil prices will rise for the fourth time in the year. Among them, domestic gasoline prices will rise by 0.03 yuan/liter, and diesel prices will also rise slightly.

At the same time, during the current observation period, as international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, changes in oil prices also went into a stranded zone from the lower expectations of the first working day, breaking through the 50 yuan/ton mark on the 7th working day and entering an upward range.

In addition to this, the central government made a decision on a one-time subsidy in response to the current adjustment in domestic oil prices.

Starting September 1, in order to ease the pressure brought on people's livelihood by rising oil prices, the central government will distribute oil subsidy funds by classifying corresponding commodities. Of these, gasoline is subsidized at 550 yuan per ton and diesel is subsidized at 500 yuan per ton. However, for targets such as a shortage of energy commodities, high freight rates, and energy-saving savings, the oil subsidy fund provides key support. This subsidy has made people more optimistic about China's economic development.

Editor/Somer