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Selling one car and losing one, Xiaopeng Q1's gross margin turned negative again after 3 years

Wallstreet News · May 24, 2023 21:48

来源：华尔街见闻
作者：吴悠

5月24日晚上，曾经的造车新势力御三家之一的小鹏汽车公布了自家的2023年一季度的业绩。

重点指标总体来看，今年一季度小鹏的营业收入达到40.3亿元，同比下滑45.9%，环比降低21.5%；经营性亏损继续扩大至23.4亿元，同比增加了37.4%，环比略微降低了1%；毛利率大降至1.7%，与去年同期12.22%的毛利率水平相比降低了10.5个百分点，而与去年四季度的8.7%的毛利率相比则降低了7个百分点。

华尔街见闻·见智研究认为，由于前期新车型G9发行的不顺利和后续老车型改款上市带来的阵痛期，导致小鹏的销量水平在今年一季度的确不尽如人意，而为了迎接特斯拉率先降价所带来的价格战，小鹏不得已的降价策略也使得整体营收和毛利率水平较为低迷，可见小鹏离逆风翻盘还有不小的距离，尚需要后续的改款车型迅速发力挽回局面。

目前来看，小鹏的首个改款P7i在三月发行以后反响还是不错的，略微带动销量回暖，而回暖趋势能否在接下来几个季度维持下去，则成为小鹏接下来重回巅峰的重中之重。

1、销量持续低迷，需要给时间改款车型发力挽回局面

小鹏的低迷销量成了目前绝对的心病，继去年四季度产品销量仅仅为2.2万辆，为全年水平最低之后，今年一季度小鹏继续维持颓势，虽然还是处于此前的一季度销量指引1.8万辆-1.9万辆范围中，勉强符合预期，但是总体销量仅为1.8万辆，已经是小鹏连续第5个季度处于销量环比下滑的状态。

如果说小鹏的销量持续的同比增速下滑是因为汽车市场旺淡季的季节性因素和年末面临新能源汽车补贴退出后冲量后出现的暂时性“小疾”（小鹏一季度的销量环比下滑18%，同比增速更是降至-48%，近乎腰斩），那么同比的大幅度下降就真是小鹏新老以及改款车型交替不佳和需求下降所导致的“大病”。

而且根据小鹏对于今年二季度的销量指引来看，公司预计二季度汽车交付量为2.1万辆至2.2万辆，考虑到小鹏四月销量达到0.7万辆，相当于五月和六月的月平均交付依旧维持在1万辆以下的水平，可见小鹏的回归销量破万大关之路依旧是任重而道远。

当然，从好的方面来看，虽然小鹏的月销量迟迟难于回归至万辆水平，但是各月单独来看还是处于缓慢的环比回升状态（一月至三月销量分别0.52万辆,0.6万辆和0.7万辆），不像蔚来在三月和四月的销量再次连续出现环比负增长。

此外，随着小鹏主打车型的改款P7i在三月上市和展开快速开启交付，今年3月小鹏的P7车型总交付量高达3030台，占了总销量的近一半份额，环比增长32%，可见市场和消费者对于这款曾经的小鹏的主力车型还是给予了部分肯定。

而在今年下半年，小鹏其他的几个老车型如P5和G3的改款车型能否助力小鹏销量迅速回暖，从而重新拉回市场和消费者的关注，是小鹏接下来重回巅峰的重中之重。

2、被迫迎接价格战，小鹏毛利率空间被极致压缩

由于一季度被迫迎接价格战，小鹏的单车收入水平跌破了20万元大关，今年一季度达到19.3万元，此前通过高价位的新车型G9拉高单车收入的计划显然也是未能实现，但好在单车收入也并未因为整体销量不佳，以及新车型G9发行不顺利而出现断崖式下滑，总体来看单车收入已经回到小鹏2020年上半年的水平。

除此之外，小鹏的毛利率水平也受到了不小的影响，今年一季度小鹏的整体毛利率暴跌至1.7%，同比降低了10.5个百分点，继续维持10%以下水平未有起色，而汽车毛利率更是跌至负数-2.5%，这是小鹏近三年以来首次出现负的汽车毛利率，换而言之，汽车毛利率为负数意味着在整个一季度，小鹏属于亏本赚吆喝，卖一辆亏一辆。

华尔街见闻·见智研究认为，小鹏在今年一季度为应对特斯拉价格战所实行的降价策略（小鹏旗下的P7、G3和P5各车型指导价分别下调2万元至3.6万元不等）还是压缩了小鹏自身的毛利率的空间。

尽管上游原材料价格尤其是碳酸锂的价格的确也在一季度有所下滑，但是由于长协价格等因素使得成本下滑幅度难有电池级碳酸锂现货价那么大，肯定是有些许延后。

除此之外，即使是以电池级碳酸锂现货价的下滑幅度来看（电池级碳酸锂的价格从一季度初的52万元/吨一路跌至一季度末的24.5万元/吨，下滑幅度高达52.9%），小鹏的主力车型P7（80度电）的成本大概会下滑1.5万元左右，还是低于小鹏自身的产品价格的下降幅度。

3、小鹏距离真正赚钱遥遥无期

小鹏今年一季度净亏损达到23.4亿元，同比增长37.4%，距离实现盈亏平衡还是有不小的差距，同时，小鹏的现金储备情况虽然还是处于良好状态，但是烧钱速度有所增长，今年一季度小鹏的现金与类现金资产储备是341.2亿人民币，相较而言小鹏的去年四季度的现金储备情况382.5亿元，少了41.3亿元，而此前的单季度烧钱水平在20亿元-25亿元左右。

其中，主要的烧钱方向还是在智能化加大投入，而销售网络的迅速扩张以及在广告方面的投入反而有所降低，然而这些都是刚性费用，短时间难以持续下调。今年一季度，小鹏的研发费用达到13亿元，同比增长6.1%，占比总体营业收入的32.3%；而销售费用达到13.9亿元，同比降低了15.5%，占比总体营业收入的34.6%。

而截止今年一季度末，小鹏的门店数量达到425家，增加了5家，城市覆盖达到145个，增加了2个。也正因为这些刚性支出难以迅速被摊销稀释，导致小鹏的整体利润也是受到一定的压制。

编辑/jayden

Source: Wall Street News
Author: Wu You

On the evening of May 24, Xiaopeng Motor, one of the three former new car builders, announced its results for the first quarter of 2023.

Looking at key indicators overall, Xiaopeng's operating income reached 4.03 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 45.9%, a decrease of 21.5% over the previous year; operating losses continued to expand to 2.34 billion yuan, an increase of 37.4% over the previous year, a slight decrease of 1% over the previous month; gross margin fell sharply to 1.7%, down 10.5 percentage points from the 12.22% gross margin level in the same period last year, while the gross margin of 8.7% in the fourth quarter of last year was reduced by 7 percentage points.

According to Wall Street news and insight research, Xiaopeng's sales level in the first quarter of this year was not as good as expected due to the unsuccessful release of the new model G9 in the early stages and the painful period brought about by the subsequent remodeling and launch of the old model. In order to meet the price war brought about by Tesla's pioneering price reduction, Xiaopeng's unavoidable price reduction strategy also caused overall revenue and gross margin levels to be low. It can be seen that Xiaopeng is still quite far from turning back against the wind. It is still necessary for subsequent remodeled models to quickly recover the situation.

Looking at it now, the response of Xiaopeng's first facelifted P7i after it was released in March has been quite good. It has led to a slight recovery in sales, and whether the recovery trend can be maintained in the next few quarters will be a top priority for Xiaopeng to return to its peak next.

1. Sales continue to be sluggish, and it is necessary to give time to remodel models to recover the situation

Xiaopeng's sluggish sales have now become an absolute problem. Following product sales in the fourth quarter of last year, which was the lowest level for the whole year, Xiaopeng continued to decline in the first quarter of this year. Although it was still within the previous first-quarter sales guide range of 18,000 to 19,000 units, which barely met expectations, the overall sales volume was only 18,000 units. This is already the 5th consecutive quarter where Xiaopeng's sales have declined month-on-month.

If Xiaopeng's sales continued to decline year-on-year due to seasonal factors during the peak season of the automobile market and the temporary “minor illness” that occurred after facing the impact of NEV subsidies at the end of the year (Xiaopeng's sales in the first quarter fell 18% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate fell to -48%, close to a slump), then the sharp decline over the previous year was really a “major illness” caused by poor alternation between new and old Xiaopeng and modified models and falling demand.

Moreover, according to Xiaopeng's sales guidelines for the second quarter of this year, the company expects car deliveries in the second quarter to be 21,000 to 22,000 units. Considering that Xiaopeng's sales volume in April reached 70,000 units, which is equivalent to the average monthly delivery in May and June remaining below 10,000 vehicles, it can be seen that Xiaopeng still has a long way to go to return to sales and break the 10,000 mark.

Of course, looking at the positive side, although Xiaopeng's monthly sales have been slow and difficult to return to the level of 10,000 units, each month alone is still slowly recovering month-on-month (sales volume from January to March was 520,000 units, 60,000 units, and 70,000 units, respectively), unlike NIO's sales in March and April, which once again experienced a continuous negative month-on-month increase.

Furthermore, with the launch of Xiaopeng's main model, the revised P7i, in March and the rapid commencement of delivery, Xiaopeng's total delivery volume of P7 models reached 3,030 units in March of this year, accounting for nearly half of total sales, an increase of 32% over the previous month. It can be seen that the market and consumers have given some recognition to Xiaopeng's former flagship model.

However, in the second half of this year, whether the remodeled models of Xiaopeng's other old models, such as the P5 and G3, can help Xiaopeng's sales quickly pick up, thereby regaining the attention of the market and consumers is a top priority for Xiaopeng to return to its peak next.

2. Forced to face a price war, Xiaopeng's gross margin space was extremely compressed

As a result of being forced to face a price war in the first quarter, Xiaopeng's bicycle revenue level fell below the 200,000 yuan mark, reaching 193,000 yuan in the first quarter of this year. The previous plan to raise bike revenue through the new G9, a high-priced model, was obviously not realized. Fortunately, bicycle revenue did not decline in a cliff-style manner due to poor overall sales and poor release of the new model G9. Overall, bicycle revenue has returned to the level of Xiaopeng in the first half of 2020.

In addition to this, Xiaopeng's gross margin level was also affected quite a bit. In the first quarter of this year, Xiaopeng's overall gross margin plummeted to 1.7%, down 10.5 percentage points from the previous year. Continuing to stay below 10%, there was no improvement, while automobile gross margin fell to a negative figure of -2.5%. This is the first time in the past three years that Xiaopeng's gross margin was negative. In other words, a negative car margin meant that Xiaopeng lost money throughout the first quarter.

According to Wall Street news and insight research, the price reduction strategy implemented by Xiaopeng in response to Tesla's price war in the first quarter of this year (guide prices for Xiaopeng's P7, G3, and P5 models ranged from 20,000 yuan to 36,000 yuan respectively) still reduced Xiaopeng's own gross margin space.

Although it is true that the prices of upstream raw materials, especially the price of lithium carbonate, also declined in the first quarter, it is difficult for the cost decline to be as large as the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate due to factors such as the price of Changxie. There must have been some delay.

In addition to this, even if you look at the decline in the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell from 520,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the first quarter to 245,000 yuan/ton at the end of the first quarter, a decline of 52.9%), the cost of Xiaopeng's main model, the P7 (80 kilowatt hour), will fall by about 15,000 yuan, which is still lower than the decline in the price of Xiaopeng's own products.

3. Xiaopeng is far from making real money

Xiaopeng's net loss in the first quarter of this year reached 2.34 billion yuan, an increase of 37.4% over the previous year. There is still quite a gap between achieving break-even. At the same time, although Xiaopeng's cash reserves were still in a good state, the rate of money burning increased. In the first quarter of this year, Xiaopeng's cash and cash-like asset reserves were 34.12 billion yuan. In comparison, Xiaopeng's cash reserves for the fourth quarter of last year were 38.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.13 billion yuan, while the previous single-quarter level of money burning was around 2 billion yuan to 2.5 billion yuan.

Among them, the main direction of money burning is to increase investment intelligently, while the rapid expansion of the sales network and the reduction in investment in advertising have been reduced. However, these are all rigid expenses, and it is difficult to continue to reduce them in a short period of time. In the first quarter of this year, Xiaopeng's R&D expenses reached 1.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% over the previous year, accounting for 32.3% of total revenue; while sales expenses reached 1.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.5% over the previous year, accounting for 34.6% of total revenue.

By the end of the first quarter of this year, Xiaopeng's number of stores reached 425, an increase of 5, and the city coverage reached 145, an increase of 2. Precisely because these rigid expenses are difficult to be quickly amortized and diluted, Xiaopeng's overall profit has also been suppressed to a certain extent.

Editor/jayden

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