公共卫生事件发生以来，粮食安全引起全球关注，农化产品需求得到提振，迎来景气周期。2023 年一季度，受到原料端价格波动，以及下游库存增加的影响，农药原药价格有所回落。2023 年一季度公司主要产品噻虫胺、虱螨脲、五氟磺草胺以及氰氟草酯市场均价分别为12.1 万元/吨、21.5 万元/吨、137.7 万元/吨、16.3 万元/吨，分别同比-12.82%、-24.84%、-15.02%、-27.98%，分别环比-6.67%、-8.27%、-5.26%、-12.12%。Incidents:
Zhongqi Co., Ltd. released its report for the first quarter of 2023. It achieved operating income of 742 million yuan in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of 6.48% over the previous year and a decrease of 7.8% from the previous month; it achieved net profit of 93 million yuan, a decrease of 14.55% from the previous year and a decrease of 23.1% from the previous month.
Pesticide prices have declined, and the results for the first quarter have been adjusted.
Since the public health incident occurred, food security has attracted global attention, demand for agrochemical products has been boosted, and a boom cycle has been ushered in. In the first quarter of 2023, due to price fluctuations on the raw material side and the increase in downstream inventories, prices of pesticide raw materials declined somewhat. In the first quarter of 2023, the average market prices of the company's main products, thiamethoxamide, perfluorosulfonamide and cyanofluoride, were 121,000 yuan/ton, 215,000 yuan/ton, 1,377 million yuan/ton, and 163,000 yuan/ton, respectively -12.82%, -24.84%, -15.02%, -27.98%, -6.67%, -8.27%, -5.26%, -12.12%, respectively.
Overall, pesticide prices are in a downward cycle, and the company's net profit for the first quarter declined year-on-year and month-on-month. The company's gross sales margin and net profit margin for the first quarter of 2023 were 26.87% and 12.54%, respectively -0.02pct and -3.18pct, respectively, and -2.78pct and -2.47pct respectively.
As the company gradually expands the number of projects put into operation, performance is expected to continue to recover.
The company is leading the pesticide seed industry, and new projects are progressing in an orderly manner.
Some of the company's pesticide varieties are in a leading position in the segment, with products such as cloflopyroxyacetic acid, thiamethacloprid, and diconide all accounting for more than 40% of the market. At the same time, the company has outstanding R&D capabilities. The company has 114 patents, of which 8 PCT patents have been applied for. The company has key technologies such as independent fluoridation, asymmetric synthesis, phase transfer catalysis, and ammonification, which lay the foundation for the company's creative pesticide development.
At present, a total of 5 varieties have entered trial production in the company's three locations, and the 15,500 tons/year novel pesticide ingredients and related product projects at the Huaibei plant are progressing in an orderly manner. With the release of the company's products, performance is expected to reach a new level.
Investment advice:
We expect the company's net profit to the mother in 2023-2025 to be 485/608/779 million yuan respectively, EPS to be 1.56/1.96/2.51 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 11/9/7 times respectively. The company focuses on R&D and production of green pesticides, cooperates closely with international pesticide giants, and has industrial chain and R&D advantages. The orderly progress of the Huaibei project lays the foundation for long-term growth in the company's performance and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Pesticide products are falling, and the commissioning of new projects falls short of expectations.