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十大券商一周策略:"中特估"与AI短期休整

One-week Strategy of the Top Ten Brokers: “Mid-Term Valuation” and AI's Short-Term Break

券商中國 ·  May 15, 2023 09:05

Source: Broker China
Author: Wang Lulu

CITIC Securities: The peak of theme trading has passed, and the market is back to being driven by performance

The full and systematic recovery of the economy after the epidemic is a gradual and gradual process. It takes time and patience for the flywheel to spin again. Themed trading is a phased product of the downturn in economic expectations that are too high. Excessive gaming reduces the effectiveness of market pricing, but also increases the potential rewards of performance-driven strategies. The peak of thematic trading has passed, and it has returned to a low performance-driven sector.

First, the transformation of the repair of the service sector into comprehensive employment growth and the restoration of confidence is a gradual process. The price, lag, and global factors currently suppressing the economy may gradually ease in the second half of the year. Second, with the current economic growth forecast falling to a freezing point and the phased end of theme trading, the intense game and consumption within the theme sector is difficult to sustain. Finally, the characteristics of the market's stock game have been taken to the extreme. The lack of sector effects has become a factor limiting the pricing effectiveness of many high-performing stocks, but the long-term potential return of performance-driven strategies continues to increase, and the market may return to being performance-driven.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities: Volatile consolidation, seeking opportunities at a low level

Recently, economic expectations have continued to cool. The weakening PMI data for April was significantly lower than the same period in the same period of the season. CPI and PPI continued to bottom out year on year, and the market is awaiting policy increases. Looking for opportunities in a low direction in the short term, “mid-term estimation” and AI are taking a short break, but they are still important clues in the medium term.

Pay attention to the structural climate and policy expectations. The direction with policy expectations and fundamental expectations that are expected to be reversed first will prevail. The focus includes durable large consumer goods such as new energy vehicles and home appliances; industrial mother machines and semiconductor equipment that benefit from autonomous control and structural upgrades; and the power sector, where profits are clearly recovering in a countercyclical cycle. When risk appetite stabilizes again and the sentiment of the strong sectors in the early structure is released, asset improvements based on strong fundamentals based on their own cycle are expected to take the lead in a steady recovery. The mid-term technology market is not over, and the next round will focus on the direction of strong fundamentals. The industry focuses on electricity, pharmaceuticals, new energy vehicles, home appliances, industrial mother machines, semiconductor equipment, etc.; the theme focuses on Xiong'an New Area, etc.

CICC: There is still room for repair of undervalued central enterprises

Looking ahead to the future market, we believe that the recent index pullback has taken into account many pessimistic expectations. In the current context of phased weakening of economic data, if policies are properly addressed and there is no need to be too cautious about subsequent market performance, the current market opportunities still outweigh the risks. Specifically: 1) Economic stabilization is not a linear recovery, and attention also needs to be paid to subsequent policy responses; 2) A-share valuations are still attractive. In particular, undervalued state-owned enterprises still have room for repair. Moreover, the current overall valuation level of A-shares is not high. The forward price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 10.3x, which is still at a low level in history. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has an implicit equity risk premium of 5.5%, which is 0.8 times the standard deviation upward from the historical average (3.8%) since 2005, indicating that market sentiment is still pessimistic, and the overall valuation is still attractive.

Industry advice: Recovery is the main line, and the style is more balanced. Investors are advised to focus on the following three main lines: 1) Pan-consumer sectors where there is plenty of room for fundamental restoration and flexibility, such as food and beverages, etc.; 2) Focus on growth areas supported by policies such as industrial chain security and the digital economy, including high-end manufacturing, technology, software and hardware, and the new energy sector; 3) Benefiting from the “Belt and Road” initiative and thematic opportunities such as state-owned enterprise reform.

Haitong Securities: The bull market pattern has not changed throughout the year, and is currently in the process of gaining momentum

Since October 2022, value and growth have all been clearly internally fragmented, and both industry and index perspectives can be verified. Essentially, the market situation over the past period was a recovery in sentiment. The digital economy was driven by policies and events, the “medium specials” performed well, and future markets may be driven by fundamentals. The pattern of the bull market has not changed throughout the year. Currently, it is in the stage of gaining momentum, and the industry may be rebalanced in stages.

Guotai Junan Securities: Recovery expectations are facing challenges, and the theme of asset shortage is king

There are three main reasons for the adjustment in the A-share market: 1) The will to go long in the market near 3,400 points has weakened. There has been a sharp decline in the trading volume of the two markets. In particular, the Chinese alphabet and the financial sector have taken a break after rising too fast in a short period of time; 2) the “mid-term valuation” and the AI concept sector have gone out of style at the same time, causing the market to lack a main market line with sufficient capacity; 3) the recovery is becoming unstable. The recently announced month-on-month decline in new social finance for April (compared to March) was the highest in the past 5 years, indicating weak demand for credit. After May 1st, outlook such as real estate sales, service consumption, production and commencement of construction, and recruitment intentions declined across the board. Recent changes in sentiment are challenging investors' expectations for recovery. The RMB exchange rate and bond market interest rates were expressed simultaneously. Economic demand and market confidence both require more and more effective policy information, but it is not clear. As a result, there is a misalignment period between weakening demand and policy support. Market expectations fluctuate and increase, and it will take time to consolidate. The stock market is dominated by shocks and structural market conditions.

Interest rate cuts, asset shortages, and strategies on the theme of high dividends and the growth of science and innovation are preferred. Recommended growth stocks with low risk characteristics and benefiting from the construction of a modern industrial system: “China Special Assessment” /Digital Economy/Innovative Drugs & Semiconductors. The next stage of opportunity focuses on stocks with further catalytic industrial policies, bottoming out profit cycles, and better trading structures. 1) State-owned economic reforms (and “special valuation”) and revaluation of debt-like high dividend overlapping assets: construction/petrochemical/finance. 2) Focusing on the construction of a modern industrial system, it is recommended that stock price adjustments are fully adjusted, profit expectations are bottomed out, micro chips are cleared, and that the medium term dimension benefits from cyclical recovery and technological innovation sectors. The end of the dollar tightening cycle is also beneficial to long-term assets. Low-level growth is recommended: innovative drugs/semiconductors (autonomous and controllable direction), and data elements & economy-related sub-sectors where policies are expected to be further catalyzed: operators/cloud services/computing power/data security, etc. 3) Traditional sector layout “cost-effective consumption” growth segments: beer/catering supply chain/gold jewelry.

Societe Generale Securities: The effectiveness of boom investments is rising in stages

With the successive interpretations of the “digital economy” and the “China Special Evaluation” market, the momentum of the main market has recently weakened, the intensity of rotation has begun to pick up, and the boom has become a more important investment clue. On the one hand, “mid-term assessment” gradually entered a stage of internal rotation and differentiation after the beta was repaired. On the other hand, although the “digital economy” has been fully adjusted, it will still take time to form a new round of main lines. As a result, at a time when the momentum of the main line weakens relatively, the alpha weight provided by the boom is rising. At the same time, the activity of short-term trading capital, represented by two financings, etc. declined, thereby weakening the “driving” effect on market style. As a result, the effectiveness of boom investment may increase in stages.

Furthermore, with reference to historical experience, May/June itself was also a stage where boom investment was highly effective. As can be seen from the correlation between performance and stock prices, May and June are the months of the year where performance explains stock price performance the most, with the exception of the April, July, and October quarterly reporting windows.

GF Securities: After the valuation hole is filled, strategy rotation is reversed

After “filling the valuation hole”, “China Special Assessment - Central State-owned Enterprise Revaluation” still has room for repair. Looking at the short term, the convergence of this round of valuation differentiation can target the low in early 2017. Since October 2022, the “valuation gap” has settled until later, and there is still room for repair in the “China Special Assessment - Central State-owned Enterprise Revaluation”.

Looking at the medium term, “China Special Assessment - Central State-owned Enterprise Revaluation” and “Digital Economy AI” are expected to show structural “valuation expansion.” China Special Assessment - Central State-owned Enterprises Revaluation “suggests grasping four top-down ideas: one is to focus on the international operation capacity of central enterprises, high dividends, central enterprise participation in the Belt and Road” related targets, building decoration, construction machinery and other industries; the second is the transformation and upgrading route supported by industrial policies, focusing on the petroleum, electricity, information, machinery and other industries of green transformation and digital transformation; the third is to focus on the construction progress of “world-class” central enterprises and related policies, telecommunications, electronics, aerospace, automobiles, electricity and other industries; the fourth is to focus on the four monopoly factors On the other hand, seize the return of “monopolizing low prices” and “pan-public use” Businesses in transportation, electricity, communications and other industries.

Anxin Securities: Mid-term improvement in AI+ digital economy

Judging that the market index is “resting on the mountainside”, the excess income still comes from structural highlights. The main line of investment has been clarified: large market value+small market growth, echoing our core asset investment and industry-themed investment. Large-market value is consumption+undervalued central enterprise blue-chip; small-market growth is the AI digital economy represented by TMT.

Regarding the investment logic of the current structural configuration, what needs to be clarified here is that the AI+ digital economy is optimistic about the 2-3 year cycle. The main line for the whole year is already very clear. Even if there is a high level adjustment due to market overheating, there is no change in the medium-term upward judgment. At the same time, the difficulty of investing based on a strong reality is that it is currently impossible to clearly prove that the domestic economic cycle is 1-2 years upward (in other words, it is unclear whether the domestic economy in 2024 is stronger than 2023). We believe that if 2023 is really bullish on undervalued values as a winner or loser, incremental capital is likely to have an advantage. The core is to track and evaluate the demand for additional allocation in equity markets after the decline in domestic residents' savings share.

Everbright Securities: The “mid-market valuation” market may still be highly sustainable

Currently, the safety margin and cost performance ratio of the “China Special Assessment” theme is still relatively high. In the future, with the gradual recovery of the economy, the “China Special Assessment” theme market may still be highly sustainable. Judging from the degree of valuation and transaction congestion, the safety margin and cost performance ratio of the current “medium valuation” theme is still relatively high. Furthermore, judging from history, the highly sustainable state-owned enterprise market generally occurred during the economic recovery period. The certainty that China's economy will recover this year is still relatively high. In the future, with the gradual recovery of the economy and profits, the “mid-term estimate” theme may return to the upward range.

The market may return to an upward trajectory. The year-on-year recovery in economic and profit data will be the core driving force for the market. The overall economy and profit for the first quarter are still in the early stages of recovery. In particular, improvements in profit data have only just begun. We expect to see further improvements in the economy and profits in the second quarter. After experiencing phased adjustments brought about by performance pressure, policy expectations, and concentration of transactions in the early stages, the market may return to an upward trajectory.

In terms of configuration, the focus is on the “mid-term assessment” theme and other sectors with low crowding and high performance. The first is the procyclical state-owned enterprise sector with steady performance and low valuations in the “China Special Assessment” theme, including banking, coal, building decoration, petroleum and petrochemical industries; the second is the large consumer sector with steady performance or continuous improvement in performance, including industries such as food processing, liquor, beverages and dairy products, flavorings, fermented products, traditional Chinese medicines, etc.; the third is some high-tech manufacturing sectors where performance may improve, including consumer electronics, communication equipment, optical optoelectronics, computer equipment and other industries.

Sino-Thai Strategy: Under high volatility, these sectors have both offense and defense

Risks at home and abroad still exist in the second quarter, and the overall market may still be dominated by adjustments. It is recommended to focus on the pharmaceutical sector, national security sectors such as military industry and semiconductors, and the main lines of public utilities of central enterprises. Specifically: 1) The long-term complex impact of the epidemic on society, the rise in residents' demand for medical treatment and the country's subsequent investment in medical resources, so that the prosperity of the pharmaceutical sector, including traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, OTC, pharmacies, etc., will continue throughout the year, and pharmaceutical products such as traditional Chinese medicine, OTC, etc. can be gradually adjusted and arranged; 2) The military spending growth rate has maintained steady growth this year, compounded by supply chain security and the catalysis of the military group's state-owned enterprise reform; the military sector may have large structural opportunities; the US has strengthened its semi-blockade of China's semiconductor and other industries. There may be safety sections such as the body Stronger policy support has forced the localization rate to increase further; 3) A new round of state-owned enterprise reform has begun, and leading underestimated central enterprises with high dividends are still “hollow” in A-share valuations, and value realization is expected to reshape central enterprise valuations. 4) Under the impact of the epidemic and the downturn in real estate, high-end and durable goods consumption related to the real estate wealth effect is under pressure, while domestic goods and mass consumption related to the “lipstick effect” have benefited, focusing on opportunities for mass consumption on dips.

Editor/jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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