The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the May 1st holiday and the high travel boom in early May led to a continuous recovery in hotel demand, and the recovery in tourist flow and revenue levels in various companies in scenic spots is expected to drive performance recovery. The bank expects July and August 2023 to usher in the peak summer season, and the degree of recovery in long-distance travel is expected to increase further; in combination with the subsequent full resumption of nationwide access to Hong Kong and Macao documents for mainland residents and rapid customs clearance at Hong Kong and Macao ports, promoting the further resumption of Hong Kong and Macao travel.It is recommended to focus on China Free Trade Fair (601888.SH), Wangfujing (600859.SH), Shanghai Airport (), and Hainan Airport (), which are closely related to the development of the duty-free sales market and benefit from the dividends of the duty-free policy. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Capital Airport (00694) and Baiyun Airport (), which benefit from the restoration of outbound travel. 600009.SH 600515.SH 600004.SH
The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:
The high travel boom has led to a continued recovery in demand for hotels, and RevPAR may recover or surpass pre-pandemic levels.
According to the STR Hotel database, China's high-end luxury hotels/middle and high-end hotels/budget hotels in the first week of May 2023 (April 30 to May 6): the occupancy rate (OCC) increased 21.8/15.3/22.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, and -10.2/-9.6/-1.5 percentage points month-on-month. Housing prices (ADR) were +60.2%/+53.5%/+57.5%, respectively, and +18.3%/+12.9%/+20.3% month-on-month. RevPAR increased 158.6%/100.7%/139.0% year-on-year, and +0.5%/-1.5%/+17.7% month-on-month, respectively. Looking at the May 1st holiday as a whole, from a quantitative perspective, the first half was stronger than the second half. From a price perspective, prices rose further in the second half, but RevPAR achieved a significant increase through price increases only in the economic price segment. This shows that travel demand in the middle and upper end of May Day is more sensitive to prices.
The number and income of domestic tourists on May 1st have all returned to pre-epidemic levels, and single passenger spending has recovered to 90% of pre-epidemic levels.
According to data disclosed by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the “May 1st” holiday in 2023 (April 29 to May 3), the total number of domestic tourist trips nationwide was 274 million, an increase of 71% over the previous year, and recovered to 119% in the same period in 2019; domestic tourism revenue reached 148.056 billion yuan, an increase of 129% over the previous year, and recovered to 101% of the same period in 2019; single passenger expenses were 540 yuan, an increase of 33% over the previous year, returning to the same period in 2019. The overall passenger flow and consumption on May Day has recovered to pre-epidemic levels. Single passenger spending has recovered to 90% of pre-epidemic levels, and the boom has exceeded expectations.
The return of passenger traffic and revenue levels in various listed companies' scenic spots during the May 1st holiday to pre-epidemic levels is expected to drive a recovery in the company's performance.
Song Cheng Performing Arts has a total of 241 performances from all over the country, recovering to 160% of the same period in 2019 on a comparable scale. The number of visitors received and revenue from a comparable perspective recovered to 127% and 121% of the same period in 2019, respectively, and the market share of various scenic spots continued to increase. According to a comparable perspective, during the May 1st period, most of the China Youth Travel Industry Index surpassed data for the same period in 2019. Among them, Wuzhen received more than 360,000 visitors, a slight increase over 2019, with a revenue increase of more than 20%; Gubei Water Town received more than 150,000 visitors, a high of nearly 50,000 in a single day, and revenue was basically the same as in 2019. The Huangshan Scenic Area received a total of 117,835 visitors, an increase of 399.62% over 2022. During the May 1st holiday in 2023, the number of visitors received and the revenue achieved by listed companies operating major scenic spots all recovered or exceeded the same period in 2019. The full recovery in tourist flow and consumption in scenic spots will drive a recovery in the company's performance.
Cross-provincial traffic reached a cyclical peak in July/August, and the degree of recovery in long-distance travel during the peak summer season in 2023 is expected to increase further.
According to data disclosed by the Ministry of Transport, there were two peak periods for cross-provincial traffic and passenger traffic in 2019. One was during the January-February Spring Festival travel season, and the other was the peak summer season in July-August. Among them, the characteristics of long-distance travel represented by high-speed rail and civil aviation in July-August were more prominent. With the implementation of the “Class B” policy, residents' willingness to travel long distances was significantly restored, and railways/highways/civil aviation continued to recover to 101%/34%/85% in the same period in 2019 in March 2023. The country's railways/highways/waterways/civil aviation are expected to send a total of 27.19 million passengers during the “May 1st” holiday in 2023, with an average of 54.038 million passengers per day, recovering to 81% of the same period in 2019; in addition, highway passenger bus traffic will recover to 125% in the same period in 2019. The country's overall willingness to travel showed a good recovery. Among them, the characteristics of self-driving travel stand out. The bank expects July and August 2023 to usher in the peak summer season, and the degree of recovery in long-distance travel is expected to increase further.
On May 15, all documents for mainland residents to Hong Kong and Macao will be fully resumed, and expedited customs clearance at Hong Kong and Macau ports will be fully resumed to facilitate the further resumption of travel to Hong Kong and Macao.
On May 11, the National Administration of Immigration issued a notice to adjust and optimize immigration management policies and measures from May 15, 2023, to fully resume implementation of “national travel vouchers” for mainland residents to Hong Kong and Macao, implement “national access” for mainland residents' applications to visit their families, work and study in Hong Kong and Macao, adjust the validity period of stay vouchers for mainland students studying in Macau, and fully resume express customs clearance at ports. After policies and measures are further adjusted and optimized, it is expected that Hong Kong and Macau group tours, especially Hong Kong and Macau group tours, will experience a sharp recovery.
Risk warning: consumption data falls short of expectations, macroeconomic fluctuations, post-epidemic recovery falls short of expectations, etc.