Source: Gelonghui
On May 11, the power sectors of Hong Kong and A collectively strengthened, and various related concept stocks such as Green Power and Electric Power Equipment rose one after another. In the Hong Kong stock market, up to now,$HUADIAN POWER (01071.HK)$,$CHINA RES POWER (00836.HK)$An increase of more than 2%,$DATANG POWER (00991.HK)$,$HUANENG POWER (00902.HK)$An increase of over 1%.
Among them, Huaneng International Electric Power has risen more than 30% since the beginning of the year, and Datang Power has risen nearly 23% since the beginning of the year.
Prior to that, the power industry was generally under high operating pressure due to the influence of high coal prices. Today, “China Special Assessment” investment is in full swing, driving the power sector to rise frequently. Coupled with summer as the peak electricity consumption season approaches, electricity demand in various regions is expected to continue to grow, and the prosperity of the power sector may continue to rise.
The peak of electricity consumption is approaching
Electricity data is a “barometer” and “weather vane” reflecting the operation of an economy.Since this year, with the recovery of consumption in various regions and the increase in production by enterprises, electricity consumption in many parts of the country has shown an upward trend.
According to data released by the National Energy Administration, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the first quarter was 2.12 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 3.6% over the previous year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the growth rate in the fourth quarter of the previous year, and the growth rate of electricity consumption was rising steadily. The total electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 1.78 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. Looking at each month, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 2.3% and 5.9%, respectively, in January-February and March.
A relevant person in charge of the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation said that the electricity consumption growth rate in March rebounded a lot compared to the previous two months. On the one hand, there were low base factors caused by the epidemic in some regions in the same period last year; on the other hand, it was driven by the steady recovery in China's economic operation at present.
On the policy sideThe General Department of the National Energy Administration issued a notice to publicly solicit comments on the “Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Stability of New Power Systems (Draft for Comments)”, which proposes to improve a reasonable power supply structure, coordinate the scale and layout of various power sources, and enhance the support capacity for conventional power supply regulation.
With the rapid resumption of social production and life, the pressure to secure and supply electricity is also increasing during the peak summer season this year. Liang Changxin, Director of the General Department of the National Energy AdministrationIt is estimated that the country's largest electricity load this year may exceed 1.36 billion kilowatts.This is a big increase compared to last year. Furthermore, China's electricity supply is generally guaranteed this year, and electricity consumption may be tight in some provinces during peak hours.
According to estimates, the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach about 9.15 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2023, and the annual growth rate will be around 6%. Under normal climate conditions in 2023, the country's highest electricity consumption load in summer is about 1.37 billion kilowatts, an increase of 80 million kilowatts over 2022; if extreme heat weather occurs over a long period of time, the country's highest electricity consumption load may increase by nearly 100 million kilowatts compared to 2022.
Is the electricity sector starting to gain strength?
Currently, the power system is in a critical period of accelerated transformation to a new power system with a high ratio of new energy sources and power electronicization (“double height” characteristics) that are becoming increasingly prominent. The internal operating characteristics of the system have changed greatly, and the anti-disturbance ability and adjustment ability have declined; at the same time, the external coupling with other systems such as meteorology and traffic has become more closely, making it more vulnerable to external risks.
Considering the overall trend of electricity consumption in China and the adjustable characteristics of different loads, CICC expects China's adjustable resource potential to reach 83 million kilowatts and 130 million kilowatts respectively in 2025 and 2030, accounting for 5.1% and 6.6% of the maximum load respectively. Combining the development trend of China's electricity market, it is estimated that the theoretical market space for China's demand-side resources to participate in market-based regulation may reach about 40 billion yuan and 140 billion yuan in 2025 and 2030.
Looking ahead to the future market, Guotai Junan said it will maintain the power industry's “increase holdings” rating. Reviewing the historical price adjustment cycle, at the current profit level, thermal power does not yet have the conditions to reduce electricity prices. At that time, there was plenty of time and space for thermal power profit recovery. Thereafter, thermal power was able to maintain a good profit level during the electricity price reduction period, and there was room for price reduction and concessions. Currently, coal prices have deviated significantly from a reasonable range, and the profit restoration of thermal power has not yet been implemented. It is still too early to discuss electricity price reduction.
Cinda Securities pointed out that after many rounds of domestic electricity supply and demand shortages, the power sector is expected to usher in improved profits and a revaluation of value.
Under the trend where electricity supply and demand are scarce, the peak value of coal power is prominent; with the continuous advancement of the market-based reform of electricity, the electricity price trend is expected to rise steadily and slightly, the power spot market and auxiliary service market mechanisms are expected to continue to be promoted, and mechanisms such as capacity compensation for electricity prices are expected to be introduced. The construction of a new power system under the dual carbon target may continue to rely on the abundance and investment of system regulation methods. Furthermore, as the Development and Reform Commission increases the long-term insurance and supply of electricity and coal, the actual implementation rate of the Electricity and Coal Association is expected to rise marginally, and the cost side of coal power companies is relatively manageable. Looking ahead, power operators' performance is expected to improve significantly.
Editor/jayden